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Okuyucu
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There were differences in the psychological balances between the period when the war started and the current conditions. When examining a war, it will not be possible to look at the next steps without making such an important psychological evaluation.
When we see what has happened since February 24, when the war started (D-day), we can easily understand the direction and weight of the changes. The D30 was an important turning point in Russia’s announcement that Phase One of Special Operations was over and Phase Two had begun. The recent events within the D50 pointed to remarkable differences.
USA AND ITS PARTNERS
USA and Partners; 1) They act in accordance with the slogan “More support for Ukraine, more sanctions for Russia”; 2) Advancement of Sweden and Finland about their entry into NATO, which greatly offended Russia; 3) More Information and Diplomatic Wars to get attention; 4) It can be summed up in the direction of increasing Human Rights and War Crimes pressure on Moscow.
The President of the United States of America, Joe Biden, came all the way to Warsaw and called the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin “the butcher”. He then coined the term “genocide” to Putin to denote it. As it turns out, these are not words that can be renewed.
RUSSIA
Although Russia continues its operation on the field of Donbass and Crimea, it is in the continuation of the Moskva Cruiser. They will come together after the collapse of Moskva and the end of the USA and the Partner, which I have mentioned above, Russia has come to the point where they will get tougher. It did: 1) mandate 18 diplomats from the EU; 2) He made a threat to Europe: “I (Russia) will place hypersonic missiles and nuclear weapons in Europe” 3) He gave it to the USA on the basis of NOTA, not for the benefit of weapons. In fact, my assessment is that these notes may increase after a while, for the USA and even because of the information issue.
We are here, April 15 (D51).
FACADES
This distinctive phase in D51 shows us its structure once again; 1) At the strategic level, the front is Eastern Europe; 2) It shows that it is inside the operative user front.
PSYCHOLOGICAL THRESHOLD IN WAR
I describe the period after the G50 as crossing the “psychological threshold at war”.
ENEMIES
Since I can exemplify the situation, I will not evaluate the situation of these hostilities. Likewise: 1) The enmity between Ukraine and Russia has deepened, it cannot become irreversible. 2) The enmity between Russia, the USA and the EU has deepened.
Since the Moskva Cruiser, Russia’s prestigious ship, is sunk, the value and impact will be multiplied more than its material value. There was already a difference regarding Russia, it was explained with the first list.
Now the Kremlin has clearly reached the point where it cannot tolerate arms and intelligence support as important as that of Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed to the Senate Committee last week that it was providing intelligence support to Ukraine. This intelligence is gathered in all forms; US, UK, EU and NATO are using capacity. Gather information from here, give it to Ukraine, then face conditions where Russia will pay a heavy price and there will be no deep hostility! This is against the nature of things.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson came to Kiev and took pictures with President Zelensky and stated that they would provide Harpoon missile aid used against ships to be deployed in Odessa.
EXPECTATIONS
CIA Director William Burns announced just yesterday that Russia’s use of “tactical nuclear weapons” should not be overlooked. In other words, if Russia gets stuck, it might consider using nuclear weapons, Burns says. So, we have to ask whether this hardening point has been reached.
Also, there is information circulating that there were 2 nuclear warheads on the Moskva Cruiser. Of course, these critical titles were taken by the authorities before the ship sank. However, there is one thing I should remind you here: If Russia can bring nuclear warheads this close to the battlefield, there may be more!
Russia could conduct more intelligence operations all over the world, but mostly within the US, Canada, UK and EU countries, and even in Sweden and Finland. These operations may remind us of the Cold War era.
As the Baltic and Black Seas will get warmer, NATO may have to do more in the region. This poses the risk of confrontation by hostile forces.
CONCLUSION
If hostilities deepen, the front of the war also changes!
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Gursel Tokmakoglu