Gürsel TokmakoğluLet’s briefly summarize how it came to be. September 11, 2014, occupation of Crimea and Donbas, DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) and LPR (Luhansk People’s Republic) are described. On 17 December 2021, there is a draft agreement that Russia presented to the United States on NATO, in the form of “take NATO to 1997 borders”. On February 22, 2022, the recognition of the independence of the Donbas region was declared in the DUMA. NATO and the United States rejected Russia’s demands. February 24, 2022, Putin’s speech and declaration of war, thus the initiation of Operation Ukraine took place. Putin’s political goal is to exclude NATO from his sphere of influence and his military goal is to liberate Donbas. On March 25, 2022, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia Rudskoy announced the start of the Second Phase of Special Operations. Russia has had significant gains; Kherson fell on March 4, Mariupol on April 21, and finally Severodonetsk on May 22. The current situation on the last day of May 2022, Russian troops are advancing in the direction of Kramatorsk in the Donbas. Question: Will Russia begin Phase Three of Special Operations in Ukraine and what will be its goal?
We have arrived at the centenary… Is there any hope for peace? No. Any idea about the end of the war? No. However, as soon as the war started, I started to define the “Post-Ukrainian” genre.
The World Economic Forum (WEF, Davos) addressed the issue; Who can tell the world public what should happen after this stage? If he knew the answer to this, he would know a doyen name, someone whom no one could say no to; here’s Henry Kissinger on stage. What did he say? If you want peace, give Putin some land…
After these 100-day battles, which they call “Special Operations”, Putin’s army will have advanced a little further in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and captured Mariupol and Kherson, in addition to the pieces of land in the Crimea and Donbas that it has held since 2014. But the result is not just that, what will be left of Ukraine, where Volodymyr Zelensky is elected President? It will be a country completely destroyed and in ruins. Under these conditions, Zelensky cannot remove the wreckage alone, he will make an effort with the support of the European Union, G7 countries and the main country USA. How many years, how much will it cost? Sovereignty is not measured in money; but calculate as of February 24, which started this operation, say by comparing today’s results. Will things work out when Ukraine’s sovereignty is in the US or the EU? What will be the definitive debt burden on Ukraine? The US has already spent a total of 50 billion, the G7 10 billion and the EU 2 billion; weapons, ammunition, salaries for civil servants, imports of vital essentials, etc. The Ukrainian population that went out found millions, this trauma was engraved in the memories of children…
Zelensky and his supporters say, we are confident that in the end Ukraine will prevail. Is this the truth or is it a myth? I am constantly reminded that operative gains and losses are one thing, that should not deceive leaders; Winning in strategy is very different, this is the main thing. Zelensky should look strategically, what is going on and he will be a genius.
Let’s say Zelensky fought and got some of his land back. In that case, did Russia back out from its aims or would it back out? The global equations across Russia are very different. We are talking about a country with one side in the Pacific. What if Russia fell back in the battle of a town in the Donbas? Think of it from Zelensky’s point of view, such perspectives are driving Ukraine into an increasingly dead-end situation and making it more dependent on the US and the EU. In terms of the USA and the EU, the rivals are Russia and China, the equation is already at different points.
Zelensky’s side dwells on the fact that Russia has committed war crimes. If only international law could establish a very clear order! Let’s say 50 years later, a European Court makes a decision that finds Russia guilty, what will happen? Will sovereignty, which is a fundamental right for a country, be thus established? The truth is that there is no war with concepts, we have to think that Ukraine has learned this by fighting today. These sentences were not created to say that the Ukrainians are wrong, they should not be misunderstood. I know the Geneva Convention (1948) to the letter, yet I remind you.
These are the facts in the history of Ukraine. The first is Stalinism, the deliberate famine that claimed five million lives with the Holodomor in 1930. The second is Nazism, missing seven million in the 1940s. This will be the third of this period, we will ask Putinism: Why was there a war? In this war, human casualties are already not small. In the first two atrocities, did the Ukrainians get what was needed back, so let’s expect a satisfactory response today? It may be said that; Should the Ukrainian people make concessions against Putinism or vice versa, was the Ukrainian people chosen as victims against the Biden Doctrine? Let’s get out of this business…
The politician wants to go to a referendum in order to take the burden off him. This is a method. Would it be appropriate if Zelensky held a referendum to determine the future of Ukraine? Who knows? But at least the US, the G7 and Europe are the ones who don’t want this possibility already. Is Zelensky free to decide then?
Geopolitical issues are many; grains, energy, global supply chains… These are developing negatively today and Zelensky has little to no interest in them. Zelensky naturally wants Crimea and Donbas back, he is fighting and he wants to reach his goal by winning. However, the attention of global powers has even shifted to serious geopolitically and other areas. In this case, one avoids even making comparisons. Are we going to weigh those who lost their lives fighting and the shrinking economies of industrialized countries on the same scale?
How hard is it? Russia fought to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Today, however, Sweden and Finland are discussed in NATO’s enlargement, so the Arctic Region issues come to the fore. So, how will Zelensky find himself in this function while the global search for geopolitical ground continues by the great powers? Let me remind you, who will give Ukraine that vital energy and grain if the war drags on into the next autumn and winter? I just saw it yesterday, fuel sales had stopped at gas stations in some regions.
Results with tactical and operative processes, logistics, intelligence and human resources, characteristics of weapons supplied to Ukraine and why they were chosen, firepower comparisons, course of city wars, why Russians withdrew from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv regions, Russian cruiser off Odessa How Moskva was sunk, why the Russians could not carry out very successful air attacks in the war without air dominance, the hypersonic ammunition used by the Russians, the selected targets, the fortifications, the river crossings, the motivation in the field… The first thing we should highlight should be the answer to the question of what will happen tomorrow. Uncertainty is precisely within the scope of this question. The answer is under what we call “continuation of the war, determination and will”.
The Russians lost a lot of weapon systems on the Ukrainian front, they spent ammunition. If the war continues, we will have sustainability discussions. The Russians have to replace the ones they spent with new ones, as a top version. Because the war has just begun, it has to be a deterrent for a more global war or show of power. So where will they procure the necessary processors, semiconductors and some metals? The US has closed the roads, the main open door is China. If China and Russia will join hands more firmly from now on, what will be the benefit of China? Will Russia, whose nuclear capacity slightly exceeds that of the United States, take the Chinese side in a Sino-US Pacific tension? Why not? So it is clear what the Ukrainian war has cost… While the Ukrainians will be busy repairing their homes after the war, the Russians will be busy producing more and new generation weapons. Globally, weapons production levels are already very high, can you imagine 3-5 years from now, it will be at least 10 percent more than it is now. We should already know that this is a new issue of tension and escalation potential.
War did not develop in a starting and going line, it was shaped from the beginning by mistakes and interventions. The Russian army could not show the expected strength and skill. Did Russia have the capacity but could not show its strength on the field, or was it a paper tiger? The vulnerabilities of the Russian army were exposed, while the mode of warfare remained as devastating as ever. There were phases such as retreat, re-targeting, a stagnant period, and re-advance. The quest for a ceasefire and the sudden cessation of diplomacy came into question. Looking at the analytical explanations of the support of the USA, there were moves in which the visible-veiled elements took place on the stage. Russia could not go beyond developing a rhetoric against these interventions. Propaganda has always been important. Virtual scenarios were processed for world public opinion. Diplomacy fiction based on these virtual effects has been developed. The sanctions campaign organized by the Western world so that Russia could fail in Ukraine, the strategic isolation and its effect on the streets of Moscow were followed. The fronts in the war, the economy and the changes in the leaders’ intentions were the topics that were constantly monitored.
Let’s say that in 2022, the US economy shrank by 5 percent, the Russian economy by 15 percent, and the Ukrainian economy by 45 percent (as if it were to be expressed in numbers only). What will happen? Money is printed and given to the interested parties, inflation increases, after a while it is regulated, the markets are narrowed, then everything is changed with new product ranges, the big ones become small and the small ones become big. The Ukrainian people return to their homes, the leaders age, there are elections, some things change…
What did we do now? Who are we made for? But the point here is that you have to have a similar viewpoint for the First and Second World Wars; After the time to be expressed with them, for example, between 2035 and 2050, there will be new normals different from the present that humanity will see. The books written for the wars, the memories of the dead and the victory feasts will still be there. New-normals are about what will happen, there will be those who pass without seeing this preparation today. Kissinger considers this well…
For Vladimir Putin, who will level his progress in Donbas in the coming days, the message “this is over” will be given to Zelensky in some form. Zelensky will look in the face of the USA and its Partners, “What should I answer?” At Davos, Kissinger had the answer! If Zelensky does not understand this, Putin’s army will be in Ukraine for a while. The additional operation related to this will be explained as the third phase.
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Gursel Tokmakoglu
