Gürsel Tokmakoğlu|
Okuyucu
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We continue to watch the war between Ukraine and Russia. What you will read will create an important archive containing the military, strategic and political issues of this period, in which we witnessed historical times.
The Russian army has started to increase its pressure on Kyiv (Kiev) again, but is acting cautiously. From the west and north to Kiev, the troops are safely deployed. The Ukrainian army, on the other hand, is targeting the logistics of Russian troops, as well as defending the city. Ukrainian units ambush logistics convoys. So far, Ukrainian troops have been more effective in the eastern Kyiv region. There are new foreign volunteers that the Ukrainian army has added to the urban resistance.
From Kharkov, the Russians are advancing slowly in the north of the Donbass region. They are conducting operations that will disturb the Ukrainian defense line from time to time. A hard operation is not seen, but if the Ukrainian defense line is broken in the coming days, Russian troops will be able to reach Dnipro directly.
In the south, Ukraine continues to hold Mariupol. However, conditions are getting harder and harder. Russia occasionally declares a temporary-tactical ceasefire for the removal of civilians. Similarly, Ukrainian forces continue to defend the city of Mykolayiv. The Russian operation against Zaporizhzhia was effective in this southern region. The possibility of Ukrainian forces to support Mariupol is eliminated.
According to the statements of various sources, since the beginning of the operation, Russia has launched 625 missile attacks on targets in Ukraine. Bad weather conditions continue to be negative factors that prevent the Russian Air Force from operating at night and in bad weather conditions. Under these conditions, the counter-fires of the Ukrainian units with the shoulder-fired missile ranged rockets (MANPAD) against the Russian Air elements, which carried out limited air operations, were effective. As the weather improves in the coming weeks, aerial support of the operation will increase even more. Perhaps, when the weather conditions allow, Russia will carry out a new air superiority move for all of its operational areas.
The Information War continues at full speed. The Ukrainian military and national leadership, together with external support, is making a significant effort in the information/disinformation campaign. Intense efforts are being made not only in Ukraine, but also in order to influence the world public opinion. This intense Ukraine Information War gives the impression of Russia’s decline in the world public opinion, but what is happening on the ground is the opposite. There is one important point, that Russia has not yet influenced the opposition in Ukraine with the Information War.
We can say this from an operational point of view. In addition, at the end of the Third Meeting, the Ukrainian delegation took the documents presented by Russia and returned to Kiev. It was announced that there will be the Fourth Meeting in Belarus.
There will be a meeting at the level of Foreign Ministers. This is an important issue. Lavrov and Kuleba will meet in Antalya, Türkiye on Thursday. This will be a very important meeting at this level.
Evaluation (March 8):
On the Russian Side: The Russians can continue their limited but effective operations on weakened Ukrainian defense lines. The capital, Kyiv, is still the main destination for Russia. However, it should not be forgotten that; Another aspect that needs to be looked at is the operation that will advance from Donbass to Dnipro.
Aspect of Ukraine: The Ukrainian army still continues to control key transport lines. In order to defend Kiev; It will focus more on continuing with the regular elements, irregular elements and volunteers reserved for the Residential Conflict, and will continue to actively use MANPAD units in air defense. It is possible to detach some of the operational units to the east in order to stop the Russian main offensive line with a high potential to advance from the north and east.
Humanitarian Situation: UN sources indicate that approximately 1.7 million (it is also stated to have reached 2 million) refugees headed to the West from Ukraine, it is an important result that they become refugees. Civilians and civilian infrastructures suffer. Humanitarian ceasefire opportunities should be used well by the parties.
Weather: Cloudy weather and snowfall continue for the next 24-48 hours in Kiev. Snow in the east could continue until Friday. Cloudy skies are expected throughout the week in the south.
Conclusion:
Let’s make a general assessment and actually put up a topic for brainstorming. Now a question arises: If Ukraine recognizes Crimea, changes its constitution and agrees with Russia, what will the USA do?
The USA and its Partners only issue weapons. Today, the EU has decided to open a chapter for membership to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, it is not known when it will end, but why did this process happen today? For Zelensky and his people, do ideas about trust in the US and its Associates at the start of the war hold true?
Under these circumstances, Zelensky may have two ways: 1) to make an agreement with Russia and stay in Kiev, 2) to rely on the USA and its Partners and fight. Very difficult decision!
If we say that the war is between the USA and Russia, let’s look at the global tension, how did the picture turn out? Even though Ukraine and Russia lost this war, one result became clear: 1) There is a union of countries that we call the USA and its Partners, 2) Russia has declared it more clearly today, it also has friends and enemies.
What does this division tell you? There may be some who say that there is no polarization in the world yet, but it seems as if we are on that path.
NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.
Gursel Tokmakoglu
