Critical Situation in Ukraine-Donbass


Hybrid War is practiced in Ukraine, not war as we know it. The conflict, which is still concentrated in the Donbass region, continues. There is an increase in ceasefire violations and this issue is not seriously addressed. It is useful to explain the latest situation to you simply.

Let’s take a quick look at the map. The Luhanks and Donetsk regions continue as Russia supports the separatists. There is no need for the Russian soldier to enter an invasion operation with his tank and cannon. The militia groups here, which they call Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) by their own definitions (Ukraine calls them terrorists) are fully supported by Russia from intelligence to logistics. Even mercenaries and special unit soldiers trained in Russia are included in the LPR and DPR by changing clothes and using fake IDs. While there is full covert support in this kind of war (in what we call peace terms), there is no need for Russian warplanes to show up and devastate the region. In the Hybrid War, the occupation happens from within, and the separatists see it; There is no need to invade by showing a flag from the outside.

Let me remind you. Russia’s flagless warplanes and mercenaries are present in Libya. Russia denies them. Haftar’s forces are present in this Hybrid War. You should consider a similar and even more effective one in Donbass.

According to local sources, in this Hybrid War, in the symmetry of Russia’s actions, US and British covert-special operations troops are also in Ukraine. Of course, we won’t be able to see them. What we are shown consists of US and British military material support. If you ask them, the USA and England will say that we do not have a military presence, just as the Russians defended in Libya. These secret military elements are still not in Donbass, they are supporting the Ukrainian soldiers from the background. But we must know that such is today’s wars. If you look at it from this point of view, it will not be against you. Irregular Warfare (Non-Linear Warfare) and Cyber ​​Warfare are everywhere.

On the provincial border, which I marked (roughly) shaded on the map, but this is the border of the Ukrainian troops in actual conditions, intermittent clashes in the form of artillery and grenade launches have continued until today. There is even ammunition thrown by the tanks in the hands of the separatists. Tonight the level of conflict increased even more. A small number of injuries were reported.

Local sources report: A total of 47 ceasefire violations had been reported by 7 pm. There are 122 mm, 120 cannon, 82 mm mortar ammunition and a small number of hand grenades in approximately 29 ceasefire violations. There is even mention of ammunition thrown by tanks.

Recently, the Russian Duma authorized President Putin to establish an autonomous structure in Donbass. In this case, it was planned by Russia to discuss this actual situation with the Ukrainian State and other interlocutors in Minsk. Another item on the table will be the separatist Donbass. The US side is aware of the situation and constantly talks about the territorial integrity of Ukraine. However, the fact that Donbass is under a Hybrid War occupation with its de facto structure developed since 2014 seems to be a matter of negotiation.

What else is going on? The USA is sending a unit from Germany to Bulgaria due to the exercise. President of Ukraine Zelensky spends time with the soldiers at the front and such images are given.

Russian troops are constantly relocating. If the Ukrainian troops look at them and react, they get tired and reveal themselves! I don’t expect it, but if the Russians break through the border, these deception maneuvers will have a detrimental effect on the Ukrainian troops.

Putin and Biden had a meeting in the past days, and Biden’s statement stated that if Russia invaded more, they would make them pay. Today, US Secretary of State Blinken used the same phrase: “I will also discuss with NATO Allies and partners … about our preparedness to pay a serious price in the event of a further Russian invasion of Ukraine.” What does more occupation mean? Saying to Russia “don’t bring your troops into Ukraine, but I accept Hybrid War”? If this means a tacit agreement localized in Donbass and this issue will be discussed in Minsk, the situation becomes clear.

On the other hand, Russia prepared the answer it gave to the USA regarding the security guarantee in Europe and sent it to the Foreign Ministry. “We can confirm that we have received a response from the Russian Federation. It was handed over to Ambassador Sullivan in Moscow today,” he said. So there is a general Russian-US agreement. This time, if the United States receives nuclear stability guarantees from Russia, we will see if it will be enough.

Yes, this is the latest situation on the Ukrainian front. We will continue to follow. In fact, the environment points to a state of complete provocation. That’s the real risk. On the other hand, a large number of fake news and visuals are published. It is necessary to pay attention to these. The OSCE prepares reports on the ground. The United Nations has not yet made a statement regarding the type and content of this conflict.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

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