For a Permanent Ceasefire

22 Mart 2022

The war between Russia and Ukraine has now come to a certain point. The question asked by those who want a peaceful end to this war, which can be considered as one of the important events of our age, and those who make efforts for it, is as follows; I wonder if an honorable exit from this war can be found for both Russia and Ukraine? I would like to review the situation by pointing out this issue.

From the tactical-operative point of view, it looks like this: It has been four weeks in the operation, and after this period the situation was not developing as Russia wanted, if Russia was to continue the war, it had to be more aggressive with other methods. (Destructive attacks have increased. A technical issue: While the ceasefire is being negotiated, Russia may continue its destructive attacks to show its influence.) As for the results;

  • Russia did not choose a good season for the war,
  • There are many logistics problems,
  • It can be stated that it is understood that the operational plans are insufficient to meet the political target(s).

On the other hand, Ukraine’s;

  • He made a good defense.
  • Good use of geography,
  • Able to exploit logistics lines,
  • He drew Russia into the city war,
  • It is understood that he used the support he received from the West (light weapons and guided rockets, intelligence, etc.) well.

Strategically, let’s express the obvious: April stands out. The stage has been reached to increase the initiatives aimed at a general ceasefire on the parties.

If the peace effort is delayed, the situation becomes chronic. Even if there is a ceasefire, conflicts may continue in different areas. In order to control the situation, it is necessary to make good use of these cramped days ahead (G+30). If there is a lack of invitation to the parties for a ceasefire, the operation continues on the ground and the opportunity for a ceasefire may be lost for at least 3 months.

The USA and Europe do not want a war with Russia, which they are in. The USA and Europe want this to stay within the borders of Ukraine-Russia, even if it is a war or a solution. USA and Partners;

  • Considering financial losses due to sanctions and energy bottlenecks,
  • Deems NATO sufficient to prevent the spread of war to Europe and the world and the increased risk of a nuclear threat,
  • He wants the immigration to Europe to stop.

The support of the USA and its partners to Ukraine continues. Joe Biden has announced yet another aid package. It is clear that the USA and NATO will not enter this war. However, developments in Russia are closely followed by NATO. All kinds of (including nuclear) NATO plans are modified according to developments. NATO also makes new plans due to emerging energy and logistics problems. The NATO summit to be held on March 24 is considered important. The decision to be made may be in terms of putting more pressure on Russia. In addition, the leaders may be expected to make decisions on a roadmap to be implemented based on the texts that have emerged for the ceasefire, which is not very clear yet.

So what kind of texts should be revealed, let’s answer this question: An honorable exit.

The description of this war, in my view, is as follows:

  • Russia occupied the Ukrainian lands unjustly and started this war.
  • Now the war is going on (it’s been about a month), casualties are increasing day by day, and in this case, the parties should immediately go to a ceasefire.
  • Russia is strong geostrategically and in terms of nuclear weapons, but the Ukraine War showed that Operation Lightning, which they had planned in the first place, failed, the time is getting longer to achieve their own goals, and the longer both Ukraine and Russia suffer from it.
  • Conditions are favorable, albeit slightly, to start negotiations on a text that convinces both sides.
  • An unprecedented Global Strategic Isolation (sanctions) is being implemented in the historical perspective of the USA and its Partners. This situation puts Russia and the world doing business with Russia in serious trouble. As time progresses, problems may increase at many points, starting with Russia.
  • Since Zelensky has not left despite the pressure of Russia (and even got stronger), if we think on the contrary, will Putin be removed from his seat? The answer to this question must be seen within the Russian State Bureaucracy. If the Russian State Bureaucracy (Russian Deep State) thinks that it is time to raise this issue and believes that a leadership change will be the solution, it may be possible. But would this move suffice to become the winner in Russia’s current global conflict of interest with the United States? Since this is a controversial issue, it is beneficial to look for a way out of this war by putting the system that is still working with Putin forward.
  • The winner of this war is the USA. The longer the war drags on, the more the United States may gain, as Russia will wear out more.

Ukraine and Russia have prepared their own lists for the path to a peace agreement. Now diplomats and politicians are working on formulas to bring these lists closer together. This is one aspect of the job. It is necessary to know what is going on in the background. The things that come to mind are:

  • What are the expectations of the USA and its partners, who support this country in the background for Ukraine, the answer to this issue is not very clear for the public. While explaining, the authorities may say peace, a ceasefire, but they may also want the war to be prolonged even if it is not announced.
  • In order to calculate all the balances, it is necessary to know closely what kind of impression China gives to the USA, Europe and Russia in the background.
  • Russia may not want to leave this war with a loss. The State Bureaucracy can continue its decision to burn the ships, as a peace road can be regarded as Russia’s all-round defeat in historical perspective.
  • This means an atmosphere of great risk for the world to deal with the Hard Power. In that case, he wants to put a right of interest in the event by making good use of everyone’s margin, in which case the issue of “honourable exit” can only remain as a discourse.

Let me present my general perspective: The United States is managing a grand strategy for all of China’s declared goals by 2049, including all its engagements on the Silk Road (Central Asia, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Eastern Europe): It’s sad to say, but that’s the case! For the United States, the spread of conflict in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, does not seem to matter much, unless, of course, a nuclear war breaks out. I think that it would be beneficial for the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to be careful in this Ukraine issue, without seeing the counter moves of the USA and China.

Where is Turkey? Today, Turkey is among the reliable countries for peace/truce for both Ukraine and Russia. If peace/truce is negotiated, it is likely that Turkey will be among the guarantor countries. Turkey looks at the issue from a humanitarian perspective first of all, it is a neighboring country to these two warring countries that demand peace and stability and have a sincere approach. The USA and Europe could not fully understand this power of Turkey when the issue was in crisis, but a month passed in the war, it was accepted that it was reliable for each power center with the clear attitude it had taken until this time. Turkey takes the initiative and carries out an effective peace diplomacy process. If Putin and Zelensky agree to gather around a table, this can be expected to happen in Istanbul. Because Turkey has proven that it is not one of the countries and power centers that exploit the parties and expect an interest, and today it is in the position of a country that stands at the forefront where an honorable exit can be expressed.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

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