The War for Hegemony

4 Şubat 2022

I will explain to you the form of war or struggle for supremacy of our age and the terms used here as a whole, with the example of Ukraine. It is an article that should be noted from an academic point of view. It sheds light on understanding what is happening globally as a whole. If such a point of view is taken, a healthy assessment can be made about what will happen in the future. Because right now, many people act with the mindset of the First and Second World Wars. However, the Fourth Industrial Revolution happened, everything, even the hegemonic perspectives changed, the rivals of the Cold War were the USSR and the USA, then we had the Unipolar World period, and on top of that, today China has upset all the balances. As a matter of fact, NATO 2030 was published, the USA announced its 2040 vision… The Arctic region was opened to trade, cyber-space was opened to all kinds of uses… In this tactic, is the main problem for today’s dominant powers Ukraine or Syria? What is the practice of polarizations now with a global perspective that is appropriate for our age? Let me explain.

History has often written wars. The wars are not over. One war is over, another has begun. The form of struggle called war must be a way of successively superiority and a kind of growth. Of course, the war will not end completely, as long as humanity exists. Seeking peace is just an ideal. As it is known, the time to take a break from wars is called peace.

The Cold War was not an atmosphere of peace. It was a state of constant friction and gun-racing. The spies were running around. There are many events in the Cold War, such as the Cuban crisis, the occupation of Czechoslovakia. The big headline for the Cold War should be; nuclear calculations were a massacre of living things, we should not ignore that.

The Russian Federation recently evaluated, which I call the 2014s, and ultimately decided that it was not right to give Crimea to the Ukrainians. When China rose and questions arose in the world, such as whether the USA was in decline or not, Russia saw the way to connect Europe to itself in energy, and when it saw its method with all its nakedness, it thought that it had found an opportunity and invaded Crimea. Today, the US and Russia are secretly discussing the issue of spheres of influence. That’s yours, that’s mine, these are the disputed places, etc.

Many are asked: When will Russia enter Ukraine, when will this war happen? I say, this is already war! The next question: I say the war as we know it… I also say that Russia has entered the Crimea, there is a state of pressure in Donbass, there are various attempts to overthrow President Zelensky, who was labeled as pro-US by the Russians; they already mean war. No, people are waiting for the known war. But there is no need for such a war, they do not want to understand it. Call it Full Spectrum Warfare or Hybrid Warfare, but that’s how it goes, power struggle, it’s got everything, it’s strategic and long-term. The sum of spheres of influence obtained in this war determines the real winner.

Here is a result statement for you; Preventing war, that is, peace efforts, makes another sense if it is thought in this way. If you say, “Let me reconcile you, let me be an intermediary,” this is undoubtedly important. But who are you reconciling with whom? USA and Russia? Or Ukraine and Russia? Since Russia will not give up on Crimea, what will be the negotiation issue on the table? There may be a possibility: Even if Ukraine and Russia somehow come to an agreement, the real war will not end after it, because the real parties are the USA and Russia. Russia sits at the table with Ukraine, Crimea is given an autonomous status, the Russians are guaranteed to keep their own population and military presence there… OK? It is possible to mediate such a regional approach. But a global solution will not come. Will many issues in Eastern Europe end? The expansion of NATO, which sets global goals, developments in nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles, evaluations of other countries in the sphere of influence, Silk Road and Arctic region sovereignty rights…

Let me put it another way. Let me start by reminding you: It was expressed in the meeting of Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken in Geneva, there is a question of spheres of influence. Well, today Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a face-to-face meeting, what did Putin say? Russia is behind China on the Taiwan conflict. So it’s going against the US in the Pacific, right? Just as Xi said before, we are behind Russia in the Atlantic area, on the Ukraine issue. Then, today Russia is explaining a definite situation: Russia and China are against the hegemonic approaches of the USA. Russia and China are together in this war for hegemony. In another sentence, they say, as these two countries and the sphere of influence that openly or secretly join them, we will end the hegemony of the USA.

The issue is spheres of influence. Who is this negotiable for? Great powers. What is the subject of discussion? For example, Ukraine and Taiwan. Other? There are many other geographies. You think…

Let me remind you of the definition of the Exhausted Country. I used this a lot when I was talking about Gray Zone Operations. Let me describe it in one sentence here. The exhausted countries (or finished countries), countries like Syria, Libya, Yemen that we know, are in the status of exhausted countries by the definition of the dominant powers, these are geographies on which new divisions are made in terms of influence, or they are countries of operation that highlight the efforts to find or create a sphere of influence in areas close to these geographies.

For example, since the beginning of the Cold War, North Korea in the Pacific region is a country of operations that has been used in some way by China, Russia and the USA. Both sides rely on this (strange) country to create legitimate justifications, both in this century! Nuclear weapons and missile technologies are given to it, its first beginnings date back to the Soviets and it still continues.

In countries close to geographies where bargaining is in progress and where exhausted countries are used, the calculation must be done correctly and one must be very careful. If we accept that Full Spectrum Warfare and Hybrid Warfare continue while making this calculation, we can draw correct conclusions. These terms are very important in understanding the Hegemonic War in our age. Because the Hegemonic War methods in the era before the First World War were abandoned in the post-Cold War period, everything is carried out much differently today. First, political leaders should know about this change and the features of the new form of struggle for supremacy.

In any case, the concept of full hegemon power (country) is not possible to see in practice. This is a utopian demand. But the definition has meaning for the dominant powers (dominant countries) striving to increase their sphere of influence. For example, for today, the USA, Russia and China act with a total earnings strategy. Including the United Kingdom, I say, there is a division within Europe.

It is essential to create an area of ​​influence and increase the gain in these areas. For China, look at the African continent. More than 40 percent of African regions are dominated by China. Banks (capital), business analysis, tenders, administrations, political expectations, etc.

The equivalent of this domination-based war, as we know it, is hegemonic war. Let me list them down here:

  • The name of the main war: Hegemonic war.
  • The names of the strategic and long-term struggles engaged in gaining the ability to be advantageous for a certain weight of global hegemony: Full Spectrum War, Hybrid War, Non-Linear War…
  • Name of the power method used: Smart power.
  • Expected result: The global weight of spheres of influence in total (in terms of effectiveness, of course).
  • The name of the struggle in the areas of influence: Gray zone operations.
  • Name of exhausted countries used for legitimacy of operations: Operation country.
  • Name of the strategy in the areas of influence: Total earnings strategy.

In the 2017s, China will gain the capabilities to put pressure on Taiwan in all its aspects, and in the 2040s, it will officially become a challenge to the United States. Say what? Can the war be ended? What is the main issue, who are the competitors, what are they preparing for, what are their goals?

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

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