It is the 4th week of the operation. Developments seem to be in favor of Ukraine. Let’s make our evaluation based on the last 3-4 days. I previously wrote Military Situation in the Russo-Ukraine War (5-8 March). According to the map in that article, it is possible to say that Russia has regressed in the past time. The decisive factor is the field. I think the field is starting to show his character more clearly!
Russia brought about 100 thousand soldiers with 9 Armies into Ukraine and started its attack. Weather conditions were unfavorable for a month (snow, rain, fog, etc.). For a few days the weather began to improve. However, this time, many places on the land turned into mud fields. About 40-50 thousand of the Russian army should have been operating forward in the field.
This shows that the timing of Russia’s launch of the operation was one of the most critical issues. If it was going to be a failure, it became a subject to be noted in history.
The inability to spread, accelerate, and open suitable roads in the field also caused the blockage of logistics supply.
The Ukrainian army blocked the more suitable directions of advancement in the field and waited for the Russians to enter these areas, and conducted planned destruction operations.
Those who resist in the cities do not leave their places. This is the second mistake of Russian intelligence. They did not foresee that such a strong resistance would be possible.
Around the cities, Russian troops of 40-50 thousand people are waiting to be able to advance. (If the troop cannot advance, it must be withdrawn, if it remains stationary, it will be damaged.)
I talked about a Russian army stuck in the mud in the field, and there is this; It is not possible to move between city mechanisms (roads, bridges, buildings, etc.).
Yesterday (March 18), the Ukrainian resistance even carried out counterattacks in Kyiv, Kharkov, Donbass, Mykolayiv.
If there is such a counter-attack at this stage of the war, it means that the Ukrainian army has morale-motivation, ammunition, weapons and tactics to attack.
If the Russian troops are repelled, their withdrawal is another problem: it is necessary to form a convoy and withdraw safely. However, the land and Ukraine attacks will deteriorate this situation and ensure its development. In this case, if the Russians make their partial withdrawal scattered, this turns into a nightmare. Moreover, a general retreat under these conditions means defeat. This situation of weakness will cause the Russians to use excessive force against the resistance in order to overcome it in a short way.
In the Donbass region, the troops are in mutually fortified trenches. There is constant counterfire here. However, the troops cannot move forward and backward. If the Russian troops cannot pass these points and advance to the Dnipro region and continue to stay in Donbass, this situation takes on a similar character in many places in the northern sector, the developments have to be read in parallel.
The fact that the Russian-Ukrainian troops hold on in Donbass without maneuvering in a way that does not take excessive risks means accepting the operative situation.
The situation in the Kyiv region is stable. Russian troops coming from the western branch were stopped at 5 km of Irpin.
In Chernihiv and Sumy, the Ukrainian defense is doing well. Stopping the Russian advance here stops the eastern branch that will flow into Kyiv, the approach direction can be kept from far back.
In the center of Sumy, 4 divisions and 2 independent brigades of Russia remained stuck in the wide field on the right and left. If these units cannot move forward, its negative effect will affect the entire operation in the wide area from Kiv to Kharkiv.
This example shows that when outnumbered Ukrainian troops outnumber ineffective Russian troops and continue to inflict material damage, popular resistance support increases and a situational advantage in strength is gained, as well as escaping a strategic paralysis themselves.
To hold Kharkiv means to hold Donbass (Luhansk, Donetsk). The command and the popular resistance in Kharkiv are fighting, aware of this situation. They have the will to want to defend Kharkiv to the death. (Of course, this situation causes Russia to use excessive force.) If they surrender Kharkiv, the balances in Donbass will change.
In the south, Ukrainian troops carried out an ineffective counterattack on Kherson. On the other hand, Russian troops in Mykolayiv are advancing ineffectively. (Their goal should be to reach the Moldovan border area, encircling Odessa from the north.)
Russia used more than a thousand guided missiles in the operation. After that tactical hunting bombers can be seen more.
The USA wants to supply Ukraine with a medium altitude air defense system, especially the S-300, and to reinforce the defense of the cities. Nowadays, S-300 supply from Slovakia is on the agenda. If this happens (from Slovakia or other Eastern European country) mid-altitude defense will be deployed in Kyiv. The USA is making an effort in this regard.
The clothes of the Ukrainian soldiers are very neat. This is a remarkable situation. If so, it can even be explained where the war will evolve.
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