This year’s Antalya Diplomatic Forum addressed a special issue. The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Russia and Ukraine at war, Lavrov and Kuleba, met. Bilateral and trilateral meetings were held with Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu. Later, at separate press conferences, the parties, which gave a message to the world media, neither hoped nor found, and had the opportunity to explain them. I watched these meetings with members of the press and tried to contribute with my comments. Without writing details here, I will share my thoughts with you, within the framework of what I understand, by pointing out the future in terms of this war and after, and including Turkey in this.
Although the warring party is seen as Ukraine, only the actual part of the war takes place within the territory of this country. Essentially, the USA and Russia are facing each other. The front is Eastern Europe and its sphere of influence is global. The USA and its Partners, as a bloc, are still imposing unprecedented, unpredictable, comprehensive, widely expressed “sanctions” against Russia. In my words, Russia is trying to be cornered with the “Global Strategic Isolation” method. Again, my statement is that a “Global Force Majeure” is being created with the Russia-Ukraine War, and it is not known what the “new normalization” will be within the framework of “Post-Ukraine”. So, in this process within the US setup, Russia and the European Union (EU) seem to have come into play in a way; Ukraine is already on fire. In such an atmosphere, China should be accepted indirectly in the game. The new world order is being constructed with the Ukraine War, which is a Global Force Majeure, in which the new normalization conditions I mentioned become clear. The Ukrainian administration, whose people suffered casualties within its territory and became refugees to other countries, has never understood the situation in this regard. Russia, on the other hand, understood this, but (according to itself) it too is condemned to difficulties, especially in socio-economic terms. When that happens, what will you say to the parties? How will you expect a ceasefire in Antalya? What will Kubela and Lavrov expect from each other?.. This is my main assessment.
From the perspective of Russia, the situation is as follows: As long as Zelensky or the pro-US Ukraine administration is in power, Russia only pretends to negotiate, but the world should not hope for peace. Because, the Zelensky administration is seen by the Russian Federation as an extension of their policies and a diplomatic tool of NATO, alongside the USA and its Partners. As long as this is the case, there won’t be much to talk about between the warring parties. But Ukraine; If he (1) declares that he has decided to abandon the path pointed out by the USA and its Partners, and in particular NATO, (2) confirms that it is a neutral country, (3) and sits on the table in terms of concrete written and detailed agreement terms about them, this is the case. It is taken seriously by Russia. Is there such a situation today? No.
Lavrov was most often asked by journalists about the attack on the Mariupol hospital, there were contradictory statements.
Lavrov says, “The USA and its Partners are using another method of diplomacy and are addressing NATO, this is never acceptable!” Again, Lavrov’s statement, “The issue of nuclear weapons threat is made by the West (an issue from Macron) as a propaganda material to the world and constantly reminds this issue, Russia is being targeted.” Can you think about these and similar issues? Who is the interlocutor for Russia? Ukraine? No. But with whom is Lavrov meeting? With Kuleba… Global force majeure; The Ukraine War, the ideas of “democracy and freedom” to be protected by NATO, the nuclear threat, etc.
Issues that find expression from the perspective of Ukraine; (1) the expectation of a ceasefire, (2) the immediate exit of Russian military forces, and (2) the retake of Crimea and Donbass. Is it possible under these conditions? No. While Russia is the main target of the USA and its Partners, Lavrov states that; “You don’t need an interview to have an interview!” But still, Lavrov came to Antalya and had the opportunity to tell the world widely about the messages they defended in the opportunity provided through this platform. What did he say about the ceasefire? “Already on the ground, the soldiers are calling for a humanitarian ceasefire and evacuation of civilians from the settlements, but the Ukrainian side does not comply with this and even wants to use civilians as human shields.” However, Lavrov stated that he would express this matter to the authorized military units when he returned to his country.
It seems that the war will continue. In fact, Russia may even attack more. If there will be a peace issue, the technical process in Belarus, which proceeds in a concrete-written framework, will be followed. In the third meeting, the Russian side received and is examining Ukraine’s written requests. He will answer and then the fourth call will take place. It does not seem possible to have a meeting at the level of the presidents. Because there was no agreement between the two. The Zelensky administration is not even on this channel at all…
Traffic increased considerably in Antalya Diplomatic Forum. Today, in the evening, Biden called Erdogan on the phone, they talked for 45 minutes. The theme was the Ukrainian War. Again today, President of Azerbaijan Aliyev was in Ankara. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg is coming to Antalya tomorrow, Erdogan will be here too. On Monday, German Chancellor Scholz will pay a one-day visit to Turkey. We will see whether the issue with Germany will be Azerbaijan gas.
I don’t like this increasing global diplomatic traffic, Global Economic War, New Cold War rumors, nuclear issues, Information Wars, I don’t know about you! However, the situation is not very clear! The world is being forced into a new grand fiction. It may have a lot to be right, but the Ukrainian administration also has to understand a little about these global issues. At least for today, 2.5 million women and children are refugees, their people are under fire inside, even Zelensky himself does not know what will happen tomorrow. For example, this war cannot be sustained by telling the United States or NATO to “protect my airspace”. It is okay to receive weapons aid from the United States and its Partners, but the issue of the sustainability of the war needs to be reconsidered. Because at the beginning, Ukraine may have had high hopes for NATO and EU partnership; Looking at it today, this difficult situation is not a matter of others, it is mainly a matter of the Ukrainian administration.
The world today is overloaded, which is a matter of Russia’s ruthless use of hard power. This war is not local or regional. Maybe in the future there may be those who are after accounts for some advantageous exits; wars bring death, but they have been useful to some people, even if they are a minority; but this is totally unacceptable.
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Gursel Tokmakoglu
