28 Şubat 2022

Before that, I shared dozens of strategic-vision articles with you. For a long time, and from the time of the transition from the era of Donald Trump to the era of Joe Biden in the United States, I have given as much weight to the global changes that will occur. Today, in this period, we are faced with very important developments on a global scale in the context of the USA and Russia. In this article, I will explain the next period, its reasons and the thought patterns that will change in the context of “Post-Ukraine”.


Let’s get used to the term post-Ukrainian. We have entered a period in which global problems have increased excessively, as we say “Post-Corona”. In this period, we are in a phase where tensions, ways of taking risks, and developments that produce global effects of all dimensions and depths can come into being. Where is humanity going? There are many uncertainties and we will look at the results with Post-Ukraine and make definitions.

How did the conditions and habits of life suddenly change in Post-Corona? Ways of life, socio-economic and socio-political environment changes have developed and changed rapidly in a few years, in incredible and overwhelming ways. Now we call it the “new normalization”, right? We welcomed the transformation models and patterns as if we were taught, even the technological infrastructure and methods were ready to a large extent. Let’s think similarly; we can be shocked with each change! But this time, will humanity be content with calling an ambulance to go to hospitals or having individual tests? Because the issues that we are already seeing are not individual and local, they are of the type that have an impact on cyber-space and global effects will emerge. It is said that they will chip in each of us. Or with another control system, it already exists, for example, with our smart devices, with our belongings… Now let’s have an addition. With this chip, our socio-political and socio-economic fields will be further clarified, and life will be built on it. Here is the newest normal for you! There are those who can calculate from today in this business, and there are also procedures that require an accounting and valuation pregnant with new methods to be developed.

Did you expect that Russia would jump headfirst into Ukraine in this way? Although it is possible, the majority opinion is probably saying that “it will not happen like this, it will not happen to this extent and speed”.


All calculations are made after “2040”. Countries and companies have already rolled up their sleeves to prepare themselves for a world that will be very different after 2040. Those who were unaware of it were left behind. Preparations are being made by the dominant powers, but on a global scale, and this creates a huge field of struggle. Question; Who and what areas will dominate more, how will the sharing be, how will the accounts be viewed?

Let’s just look at the calendar up to 2049 in the context of China. Here’s what I predict:

  • 2021 marked the formation of US global alliances and partnerships against (originally) China and Russia.
  • 2025, China’s economy target: “Made in China 2025”
  • 2027, the completion of the first phase modernization of the Chinese Army (modernization of its capabilities to be networked in a system of systems for “smart warfare”).
  • 2027, China reaching up to 700 nuclear warheads.
  • 2027, when China feels ready for military intervention in Taiwan. The USA’s development of moves to deter this with all its measures in the Pacific (in my opinion, it has already started with the Biden Administration).
  • U.S. suppression of Russia by 2030.
  • 2030, China reaching up to 1,000 nuclear warheads.
  • 2035, China’s economy target: “China Standards 2035”
  • 2035, when the Chinese Army completes the second-stage basic modernization.
  • An increasingly tense world globally by 2040.
  • 2049 marks the final stage of full world-class modernization of the Chinese Army and the completion of the “Great Rejuvenation Strategy”.
  • I think this will be a projection of what will happen in the world of 2050. But I would like to ask, are you ready for the tensions to be experienced between 2040 and 2050? If this is the case today, how will it be tomorrow?

NATO 2030

The target of the Atlantic alliance included the Arctic, cyber-space and associated Asia-Pacific, Indo-Pacific regions with China from 2020 onwards. Let me also state that the mindset of what the NATO 2040, which will be announced in 2030, can cover is being determined today.

Those who cannot prepare for 2030 with their visions and projects today will perish in 2040.


What is the Biden Doctrine? “A strong America that works with partners and allies to defend our shared values, advance our common interests, and show that democracy can thrive even in the face of new and accelerating global challenges for the American people and people around the world!


Why did American policy makers, looking at developments, place such importance on alliances? Before China made the second pole, they formed their own ranks. Who are they? Let’s see: G7 (US as well as Germany, UK, France, Italy, Japan, Canada); EU (27 countries); NATO (30 countries); added Deep Partners in NATO 2030 vision (Canada, UK, Netherlands, Italy, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea); Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (USA, Japan, India, Australia) and Strategic Partner (Israel). This is the Global Bloc of the USA. If they act together and develop their plans-projects synergistically, it will be possible to reach the targets in 2040.

It was clear that Joe Biden had achieved his goal in what he had explained with a smile and pride. In accordance with the Biden Doctrine, the USA had reached an agreement with the countries within the framework of the G7, NATO, EU, AUKUS and Quad. This formation established by the USA, which is composed of approximately 50 countries, is expressed as linked democracies according to the Biden Doctrine. Against this formation, the most prominent ones are autocracies. China and Russia are positioned here.


What is Anglosphere? Five simply English-speaking countries (with their pseudonyms); United Kingdom/Britain (UK/B), USA/American (US/A), Canada (CAN/C), Australia (AUS/A) and New Zealand (NZ/Z).

See agreements under Anglosphere: ABCANZ Army Program (Land Force), Air and Space Interoperability Council, AUSCANNZUKUS (Sea Force), Border Five, Joint Communications Electronics Board, Five Country Conference (Immigrant), Five Eyes (UKUSA, Intelligence), Five Country Passport Group, Technical Cooperation Program (Science and Technology). All these agreements were determined according to the idea and organization at the time of the Second World War. Each has been developed over time. In their improved form, the agreements were updated after the Cold War, especially since 2004.

Why are those who hear about AUKUS these days surprised? As part of Anglosphere, it is a step in the series of cooperation and nuclear powered submarines will be at the center of the issue. AUKUS, the nuclear submarine program between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. If we expand, they will act collaboratively in military, security, technology, cyberspace.

According to the agreements, Macao and Hong Kong were transferred to China. China states that Taiwan is its own territory. There are islets in the South China Sea that it claims to dominate. Three critical points for today: South China Sea, Hong Kong and Taiwan. China wants to have full control over these three aspects and bases its definition of sovereignty (including economic and defense) on this.

GROUP of 7

If we only look at the USA, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, it would not be wrong to say that half of the wealth in the world. G7 members represent more than 46 percent of gross domestic product globally in nominal terms. These countries represent more than 32 percent of GDP in purchasing power parity. In 2018, countries in this group accounted for more than 60 percent of the total global net wealth of $317 trillion.


What kind of applications will be made with this formation was a question mark. At the beginning of the Ukraine war, there seemed to be differences of opinion between the European Union and the United States (and Britain acting with it). The Ukrainian war was enough to consolidate the West. So, in Post-Ukraine, this formation was clamped together with the partner and alliance of the USA. From now on this formation appears to be moving as a formation (it’s too early to tell if it’s already called a pole). So what will they do? What were the examples, what did we see, are these clues for what might happen in the future?


We have seen that heavy economic sanctions against Russia have been announced and implemented by the West. Let’s note some of these various sanctions here:

  • Economy: Russian banks including Central Banks, oligarchs, important companies were blocked, reserves were frozen, bonds were prevented from being converted into cash. Among the obstacles, the subject of SWIFT came to the fore.
  • Energy: Restrictions were introduced on energy (especially seen in Russia’s natural gas flow to Europe). It was stated by the West that there would be new and alternative solutions.
  • Transportation: Airspace use barriers came. European airspace is almost closed to Russia. In this case, it can be easily implemented in other applications.
  • Information: Restricting the media for disinformation to Russian agencies (RT and Sputnik). It wasn’t even called a “sensitive issue” or “a matter of censorship”, disinformation was treated as a direct weapon, and the activities of the broadcasting organs were seen as hostile behavior. In this case, such approaches can be brought to the press.


My basic idea is about the big changes that have to be experienced already with the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0). In this, many issues will be reconstructed, I see it as inevitable.


Beyond the restrictions, there was another practice in Ukraine. It was also about communication and technology. For example, Elon Musk conducted a trial application for Ukraine as part of SpaceX’s “Starlink” project. Aside from the content of this technological issue, even the realization of this application is an important development within the framework of our Post-Ukraine title. Here are the escalating issues of competition, technology and dominance in cyberspace!

Let’s talk about it in one sentence, however, the internet of Kiev, which was exposed to cyber attacks, suddenly started working. How Does? Starlink supported. Then we need to know that the real competition in the future will take place in cyberspace.


What are the first things we can see in Post-Ukraine?

  • Global Economic War,
  • New Cold War,
  • Hybrid Warfare (Irregular Warfare and Cyber Warfare).

If this is the case, countries, companies and formations that prepare accordingly will be able to win. Of course, other titles can be added to the details of what we have mentioned. Information Warfare, Undeclared War, Intelligence War etc. There is also a lot of other content. Nuclear tension will be one of the most important issues on a strategic scale.

An undeclared war also means that there is no peace and gives the appearance of a chaotic world in an environment of constant pressure and competition. This means that in the conditions of undeclared war, it will create a bigger problem in the application of international law.

Russia put the nuclear forces on alert. Today it seems that we will also face the risks of Putin’s failure! However, we are in a period when weapons of mass destruction will diversify and increase in number.


There’s Smart Power in the Biden plan. Biden created a global environment of coercion due to the implementation of Smart Power. This has produced an impact that will create a global force majeure for almost everyone, the institution.

In fact, with Post-Corona, humanity has involuntarily accepted the definition of “new normalization”. The problem of Russia, which is Ukraine-oriented but essentially a global power, was put forward to the new normalization that emerged with this pandemic. And now we are thinking of Post-Ukraine.

My question is: What kind of new normalization will humanity be in with Post-Ukraine?

We take hints of this… In Post-Ukraine;

  • Widespread use of cyberspace,
  • The use of disinformation and preventions against it,
  • The spread of the food and commodity problem,
  • Increasing armament tendency, allocating more budgets by countries,
  • Increasing mass migration and refugee problems,
  • nuclear weapons imbalance
  • NATO’s new format and mandate (in terms of NATO 2030 today, 2040, 2050 will evolve in the coming years),
  • nuclear options,
  • Changes in global trade routes in global transportation (such as the Arctic region, the necessity of using mandatory airway corridors resulting from the closure of airspaces),
  • The tendency of Russia and China to support each other more, the areas that need each other to come to the fore more and the agreements, this affects the West,
  • The most important thing will be the construction of the new economic order with Fintech.

From now on, it may not be what we are used to… It is undesirable to intervene in the markets, especially in liberal democracies. However, there may be interventions in production, consumption and trade. Before Post-Ukraine, you wouldn’t have had a sufficient and effective justification, but now you do. For example, the European Parliament can take a decision and impose it by saying “nuclear threat, Russian threat, the European Continent is at war…”.

In democracies, it was difficult to limit the possibilities of great power centers in the dominant countries (including those who have become global powers and can act without even listening to their own governments, take advantage of the opportunities in the world, and form partnerships with undesirable powers in line with their interests).

This is what Biden calls Intelligent Power: When we say democracy, it is within the soft power of democracy, but when it comes to global force majeure and risks that develop very rapidly and create big problems, the steps to be taken are to turn into a gigantic power with partners and alliances and put them like a wall against the opponent.

It is necessary to examine the developments in the context of Ukraine, which describe both the reasons and the changing situation that I have listed above, from this perspective.

We are actually breathing the atmosphere of 2022; The dominant White House-focused coalition has engaged in a global intervention, the kind that has had an impact in all directions and layers!


Let’s take a look at the economic sanctions imposed due to the Ukraine issue. Russia will be affected by four currencies. These; Dollars (61.82 percent), Euros (20.24 percent), Pounds (4.54 percent) and Yen (5.25 percent). So what is the sum of the global reserve ratios of these currencies? According to 2019 figures, it is 91.85 percent. In this case, it is only clear how much pressure Russia’s ruble will come under. The global reserve power of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, is only 1.95 percent. (Think of the rest.)

Let’s take a look at the processing power of some stock markets on a global scale. New York’s share is 56.2 percent. 33.7 percent of London. Even if we add these two together without adding Dublin, Paris and others, we should know that they have a trading volume of 89.9 percent.

Even with the SWIFT calculation, the result is obvious, but other things must be sought here. I wonder if, in a new order (the newest normal), will the four currencies and related exchanges of this Western bloc move to a new economic structure with Fintech at the same time? Will a new application be brought to Russia due to the Ukraine crisis, but to the world outside of this US alliance? Imagine that at the same time, major global players such as the United States, Canada, European Union countries, the United Kingdom, and Japan took economic sanctions against Russia in a coordinated and negotiated manner. In my opinion, one should not go without worrying about this issue. Because there is great uncertainty, these are not the usual moves. The mentality of “You have the labor, resources, services, production, money and consumption is in my control” will probably continue ruthlessly…

So let’s ask: If it is a question of directing finance and investment ways by going beyond the known freedoms and arguing the destructive war reasons, will the production and consumption decisions of one side of the world be affected? Will the political picture be shaped in the target countries by directing the financial and investment routes?


In the Ukraine crisis, the parties constantly brought up the issues related to nuclear weapons as if they were threatening. It is good to know that the USA and Russia have approximately two thousand defect nuclear warheads in their warehouses. China has started working on this issue and their goal is to have a thousand nuclear warheads by 2030. If the United States and Russia continue to stay in balance as per the Nuclear Planning Agreements, and if Russia and China advance by agreement, it can be said that in 2030, a power with 50 percent more nuclear warheads (moreover, pointed at itself) will emerge against the United States. What should the US do in this situation? It should go free and get out of agreements on the production of nuclear weapons. So is it coming out? Yup.


Are we living in one of the times of reformatting the world? I am after understanding this Post-Ukraine, taking the necessary steps according to its importance and making its content resonate. It is clear that every step to be taken in this new chaotic order, especially for the dominant and developing countries, should be very calculated. From a strategic point of view, I would like to present this issue to your appreciation.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

Politika 'ın son yazıları


Filistin-İsrail Politikası Hakkında

Ortadoğu'da, ABD'nin "kontrol bende" dediği bir ortamda, İsrail'in şımarıklıkları ve İran'ın anlamsız çabaları sürerken, Filistin konusunda nasıl ilerleme sağlanabilir? Bu dramatik konuyu aktörleri belirterek gözden geçirelim.

Stratejik Algı Yönetimi

Strateji ile algı yönetimi bahislerini, canlı örnek olduğu nedenle, Ortadoğu, ABD ve İsrail ile açıklayacağım. Buradaki amacım yaşamda ve çıkarları elde etmede dilin ve yaratılan algının kullanılmasının ne kadar etkili olduğunu göstermektir. Evet, temel olarak bu bir iletişim konusu olsa da görüldüğü üzere, ülkelerin mücadeleleri ve savaşların nedeni dahi olabilmektedir.

Yapay ve Doğal

Size analitik bir yöntemle, halen Ortadoğu'daki onca yapaylığa ve yürütülen negatif amaçlı algıya rağmen, Türkiye'nin ne denli doğallık içinde ve istikrar amaçlı politika yürüttüğünü açıklayacağım. ABD ve Rusya gibi büyük güçlerin yanısıra, bölgede İran ve İsrail arasında yaşananları kavramsal boyutta irdeleyeceğim. Analizin her bir basamağında belirginleşen kuralları açıklayacağım.

İsrail, İran ve Gazze

Genel bir değerlendirme yapalım, çünkü İsrail, 7 Ekim saldırısından 6 ay geçti ve "bugün Gazze'de üçüncü aşamaya geçtik" dedi. Bu ne demektir, bölgede başka ne gibi gelişebilir olabilir, hepsini inceleyelim.

Modern Rekabet

Burada modern rekabetin küreselleşmesi öyküsünü kendi içindeki kavramlarını tartışarak, Rusya ve Çin örnekleri üzerinden otoriter yönetimlerin eleştirisini yaparak açıklayacağım. Kavramsal olarak "modern rekabet" anlayışını bu şekilde açıklama imkanı bulacağım. Sonlara doğru kapitalizmin yozlaşmasını açıklayacağım. Bu kısımda da Anglo-Sakson yapıyı ve Kıta Avrupa'sını işaret edeceğim. Burada anlaşılması gereken şu olacak: Demokrasi ve insanlığın gelişimi kimsenin insafına kalmamalı, rekabetin yapılma amacı değer üretmek esaslı olmalı.

Okumadan Geçme