Gürsel Tokmakoğlu|
Okuyucu
|
Where are we as of today on the Ukraine issue? Let’s evaluate some important developments and determine the situation. It seems that the dominant powers will implement certain protocols among themselves. Zelensky is not embarrassed by this situation.
Russian troops remain on the Ukrainian border. Russian military ships are in the vicinity of the Crimea. This strategic build-up of Russia is sufficient for deterrence.
The United States and Britain continue to make dates about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia states that “it has never had such an intention until now”.
Russia has received its receivables from Ukraine since 2014. Crimea was annexed. More Russian populations were created in the Donbass region (Luhansk and Donetsk), with the de facto condition for the demand for autonomy there. It was already called Hybrid Warfare. The Russian Hybrid War spread to the region.
There are mutual cannon and mortar fires almost every day in the Donbass region. The conflict is here and it is happening as an internal matter of Ukraine.
Ukrainian military units will not be able to reverse the situation in Crimea and Donbass (Luhanks and Donetsk) in a way that corresponds to the demand for “territorial integrity”. Ukraine asks: If NATO and/or the USA and European countries will not support them today, when will they?
Germany and France seem to have agreed with Putin. Nothing will be given to Ukraine except arms and material support.
It is out of the question for Ukraine to join NATO without solving its problem with Russia. NATO provides intelligence and logistics support.
All the efforts of the G7, NATO, EU and the USA have materialized in the form of political-diplomatic support to Ukraine. The military support given (grants, sales, etc.) corresponds to Russia’s strategic deterrence moves, but it is not enough. Russia will not give up on this situation, the de facto situation it has built in Crimea and Donbass.
Problem areas in Ukraine will be discussed in Minsk. The USA and Europe have reached an agreement with Russia at this point.
In this situation, President Zelensky began to feel deceived and the Ukrainian people. His demand is to join NATO immediately and thus see the steps taken in accordance with Article 5 of the Alliance.
Russia examined the letter related to the security guarantees it received from its rival, the USA, and gave its answer. The USA and Russia have formed the basis of mutual negotiations for European security and will continue to do so.
The most important issue of the USA and Russia is about nuclear weapons. As a matter of fact, Russia carried out a nuclear weapons launch exercise with its strategic forces, as if pointing out this issue. The fact that the USA and those acting with it implied that it is not needed for now, but that Putin can press the trigger of nuclear weapons when requested, has actually been recorded as threatening the world.
Economic sanctions were expected from the USA. The US response is as follows: Economic sanctions will not come into play unless Russia takes action to invade Ukraine.
The situation still remains open to provocations.
Conclusion: The US side could not deter Russia with this method, the Ukraine strategy is far from meeting the expectations. Europe has shown that it is not on the side of the USA “under all circumstances”. A media where there is a lot of talk creates extreme tension by reminding many problems in the world from economy to security.
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Gursel Tokmakoglu
