Russia Under Pressure

1 Şubat 2022

The second phase of the Western strategy of Ukraine against Russia has been launched. The plan goals that the USA and Europe have implemented in order to improve the gains they have achieved so far are taking the next step. On the other hand Russia is considering its own chess move, will it take a queen or a pawn? Because the West provided fortification with its castles, horses and elephants and brought the game to a certain point.

The West’s Ukraine plan is working, now the second phase has passed. Let me explain the plan objectives of the Western strategy and these two areas:

  • What has been implemented so far, what was in the first stage of the West’s Ukraine plan? All kinds of military support, preparation of joint defense plans, military and alliance deterrence, system integration, raising the level of preparedness, direct diplomacy.
  • After that, how will the second phase work? Defense support, multi-faceted deterrence, reduction of tension in the application of hard power, international law and diplomacy, economic sanction.

Is second-stage applications a step back for the West or what do they gain? The West settled in Ukraine and developed an understanding of defense within the integrity of the system. Today, Ukraine can be thought of as a kind of border country of NATO. Ukraine became eligible for a direct military support if prompted. First plan objectives completed. The system is working. Warehouses are full. Overall, the targets were largely achieved. (Note: When such goals are set, the percentage reached is indicated. It seems that goals above 70 percent have been achieved.)

To maximize this situation, the second phase plan will now be implemented. This stage can be viewed as consolidating gains. Russia does not see this situation as a step back. It will also clarify how to take action according to the new situation. Russia, which received the guarantee letter it wanted, stated that it would make a decision. Simply put, the ball appears in Russia. While Russia is solving the problem of the previous phase, the West is maximizing its position with a step forward.

Those who look at the issue from the outside may not see these strategic moves. But the point is clear, the West, which has raised its level on European security and the defense of Ukraine, is now taking a step forward. This was signaled by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Linda Thomas Greenfield, who spoke at the United Nations Security Council. For some, Stoltenberg’s, Truss’ and Greenfield’s statements may not be fully understood. They stated that the new step of the ingenious strategy has been passed.

In this case, two issues arise. Let’s examine:

  • The first concerns Ukraine. The West says to Ukraine, which it supports; Now, put your hand under the responsibility and show your determination.
  • The second issue is the USA, the UK, Germany and France, institutionally under the leadership of NATO and OSCE; a) Europe’s security should be strengthened along the borders of Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, b) Russia should not take steps that threaten Europe, every issue from nuclear issues to energy should be determined by mutual agreements, if necessary, c) Russia should be directly involved in relations with China, rather than learn to act together with Europe.

From the very beginning of the implementation, the United Nations was activated. Now the comfort of companies and oligarchs in the energy field will be disturbed through economic sanctions. The situation will be reviewed in the Duma.

Now, Russia has come to make a defense that it has not acted in accordance with international law.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov started to speak in this direction and said that we are in favor of international law.

At the UN Security Council, the United States said: “We have explained to the international community the full implications of this threat, not just for Ukraine, but for the basic principles of the UN Charter and the modern international order. […] If Russia chooses to turn away from diplomacy and attack Ukraine, Russia will take the responsibility and this will have quick and serious consequences. […] Today’s Security Council meeting is a critical step in calling the world to speak with one voice: rejecting the use of force, calling for military de-escalation, promoting diplomacy as the best way forward, and demanding accountability from every member state for military aggression against its neighbors.”

Let’s look at the prospects:

  • First of all, in order to give a message to Europe; It is expected that some Ukrainian detainees will be released from Russia and that Russia will gradually withdraw troops from Belarus.
  • Russia may reduce the dose of its military exercises off the Baltic and UK.
  • If Russia takes a new hard power step, this time NATO can demonstrate from a very different perspective, such as a Peace Support Exercise in Eastern Europe.

Yet we must point out that we are in a critical phase. Russia is uncomfortable with the artillery units reinforced with Western aid in Donbass. He is targeting Ukraine in this regard. If the West corners Russia with an overdose of second-stage practices, this time military provocation may come into play: Donbass is critical!

At this point, the USA and Europe diverge methodically: USA is more interested in Smart Power and reminds Europeans what kind of games Russia can play. (Note: Let me remind you, Smart Power covers the strategic perspective, it definitely helps to achieve the main purpose.)

Don’t be surprised if you see Russia’s tactical hard steps; These should not evoke the question of whether the war is approaching. You focus more on Russia’s economy and rhetoric, we will see the real indicators at that point.

I guess we understand now; What is the Biden Doctrine versus the Putin Doctrine, what are the goals and methods?

When Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping meet on February 4, they will find these cards to play in their hands.

The conclusion we can draw from here is clear; The second phase will be strong enough to encompass not only Russia but also a large circle.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

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