Is Russia’s Plan of Operation Wrong?


How to make an action plan? What were Russia’s shortcomings and mistakes? What developed during the phases of the operation? What stage has the operation reached? What to expect next? What impact does the United States, its Partners, NATO have on warfare? A detailed analysis of the war between Ukraine and Russia.

While making the operational plans, the enemy’s situation is evaluated first, the possibilities at your disposal are examined, the options are discussed according to the conditions, and the activity is carried out to determine the most correct course of action. What I was talking about was theory. What did Russia do in practice? He failed to plan the operation. Why? The Situational Proceedings regarding Russia’s enemy, with its full explanation, the Situational Proceedings regarding Ukraine, the USA and its Partners (including NATO in the first place) were an incomplete or erroneous assessment that did not keep the calculations. In addition, Russia seems to have exaggerated its own possibilities and capabilities. Here, they ignored the important deficiencies in terms of logistics, command-control systems and manpower, and started to implement the plan without making up for the deficiencies. As such, the most appropriate course of action developed with the action plan has been completely wrong.

Let’s list the most important aspects that are overlooked in the enemy situation assessment: the command-control, intelligence, cyber and logistics support given to Ukraine by the USA and its Partners in real time or near real time without interruption. Zelensky’s leadership. The determination and will of the Ukrainian army to continue the war; his defense preparations; tactical notion.

Putting all these together, when Russia started the invasion attempt on February 24, within the framework of the Special Operations Plan they made, the most appropriate mode of operation was also wrong. What did he do? Headed to Kyiv. He dispersed his troops from the south of Belarus to the east and south to the Black Sea and could not achieve a concentration. Thus, the Russian army, which came to occupy Ukraine, wasted a full month’s time. Realizing the situation, on March 25, the Deputy Minister of Defense declared, “Phase One has ended in Special Operations, Phase Two has begun, I am withdrawing my troops from Kyiv, Sumy and Chernihiv to regroup.”

In fact, everything that happened over the course of a month was the result of a wrong plan. The commanders were not going to say that he was defeated by the Ukrainian army. Putin was thinking of continuing the operation and achieving his goal by achieving a success. But meanwhile, the morale and motivation of the Ukrainian army increased even more. In addition, the USA and its Partners saw their plan succeed. Accordingly, while Russia was being reorganized, Ukraine and its supporters quickly evaluated the situation and arranged their preparations according to innovations. Now in this situation; While the Russian side would move forward by correcting its mistakes, the Ukrainian side would take steps to improve its success.

This means that the operational plans have a value in this respect; When successful in the first phase, the “situational superiority” provided by this creates an added value in the later phases. Because the weaknesses of the enemy (here, Russia for Ukraine) and the points to be exploited are revealed very well, it is possible to benefit from the psychology of the war.

Here was another 20 days spent in that time. When the Flagship Moskva Cruiser was sunk off Odessa, exactly 49 days had passed since February 24, the date had come to April 13. According to my assessment, as of April 14, the 50th day of the operation, a new phase has begun. The arrangement that Russia will take according to the Second Phase plan of the Ukrainian side has become clear. In addition, according to this situation, the content of the support to be given by the USA and its partners became clear.

In the new phase of this ongoing operation (between 14-27 April as of today), we also see that the USA and its Allies, including NATO, actively took measures that included a further step both diplomatically and militarily, and increased their influence in the war. The United States and its Allies say Putin is defeated. Helicopters, armored vehicles, tanks, especially heavy and sophisticated weapons and systems (for example, Phoenix Ghost drone specially produced for Russian targets in Ukraine) are given to Ukraine from the USA and European countries. These are also indications that the shape of the war has changed and that it has reached a different stage. One of the prominent examples to be reflected on the field was the 155 mm howitzer guns given to the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army is making accurate moves in pursuit of counter-attacks. It launches offensives in the Donbas, Kharkiv and Kherson regions, advances points, hits advanced Russian logistics bases. Even Ukrainians are targeting Russian ammunition points located in nearby settlements beyond their borders.

Meanwhile, the United States, Britain and NATO have maximized their military presence in Poland.

The Russian side talks about nuclear threat options. Russia is threatening because of the West’s arms supply to Ukraine. Russia is expanding the field of operation. For example, it hits a bridge on the way to Moldova and Romania near Odessa, and the command-control infrastructure and logistics warehouses of the allies in places such as Lviv, Odessa, Kyiv. In the meantime, the city of Mariupol is under Russian control on April 21, and activities are still being carried out to overcome some problems here. In this case, the Sea of ​​Azov was completely under Russian control. We will see if the Russians, starting from Odessa, will be able to reach their troops in Moldova-Transnistria. This means that the Black Sea-Odessa region remains within the target area for the Russians.

In this case, the Harpoon missiles promised by the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on April 9 for the defense of Odessa from the sea will not be in vain. In addition, the UK also supplies Starstreak type air defense missiles to Ukraine.

The Russians have been operating in the Donbas and Izium regions for 13 days, but they have not progressed much, it seems. This means that the defensive measures and maneuverability of the Ukrainian army here have not yet collapsed. If the Russians spend a lot of time on this front at this slow pace, we will talk about the continuation of their weakness.

As a result, this is how the developments reflected on the field were seen at this stage of the operation (rather than after April 14). It seems that the situation has become quite different if the situation at this point is examined from the plans at the beginning of the war. The Ukrainian side will want to continue its resistance with the superiority of the situation it has captured. However, it is a country with a large army like Russia. Destruction in Ukraine is increasing day by day, resources are melting, cities are falling into ruins, infrastructures are collapsing.

This war should not be prolonged, it should not go to more uncertain conditions (such as the nuclear option), and even its front should not be expanded. It is necessary to get out of this point where mistakes are made urgently.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

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