I will present to you Russia’s possible Ukraine Plan of Operation. Almost everyone is asking how the Ukraine-Russia War will unfold, or looking for the kind of answer that will most likely happen.
9 armies are serving in the area where Russia is located, from Belarus to Crimea, all around Ukraine. There are about 100 thousand soldiers on the field here. 80 percent of power is transferred into Ukraine.
Russia has 3 military air bases closest to Ukraine. From here, it performs tactical air operations missions. Long-range strategic bombers come from the depths of the country. Air superiority is still in the hands of Russia. Russia produces 170-210 sorties per day. (Ukraine can fly 2-5 sorties.)
The Sea of Azov is completely in the hands of the Russians. There are frigates, assault boats, amphibious landing craft and auxiliary ships at 4 different points in the Black Sea. In addition, submarines operate in the field.
All these details are marked on the map. Again, the map shows the pieces of land that the Russians have already taken in northern, eastern and southern Ukraine. Although the cities of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Mariupol were not completely captured by Russia, they are largely surrounded. Starting from the south, it would be more appropriate for the Russians to surround it rather than take the city of Odessa. The sea section is already closed. From the north of the city, a branch from Mykolayiv continues its operation to close the north of the city. Advance from Melitopol to Zaporizhhzhia continues. The main battles take place in the Donbass region. Before the start of the war, Ukraine had made an important build-up in this region. Although there are still important clashes near Luhansk and Donetsk, Russian troops want to load from here and develop the operation in the western direction. At the same time, pressure on Donbass is sustainable from the north to the Kharkiv region to the south. Near the city of Kyiv, Russian troops approached at a distance of 7-15 kilometers.
With this overview, I can list the objectives of the possible operation as follows:
I. Phase Objective: Capturing the section of land extending from Belgorod on the Russian border to the south and ending in the Crimea. It is highly probable that the operation that forces Ukrainian troops to annihilate or withdraw in this region for 2-3 weeks from three branches, from the north, east and south, will continue. The target is Dnipro. Dnipro is a city that is the key point on the road to the west. Air support is greatly needed at this stage of operations.
II. Phase Objective: To carry out the siege that will prevent Odessa from breathing. When necessary, sea and air elements are used. This campaign can take place in the same time (2 weeks) as the Phase I Objective.
III. Phase Objective: Again, from the north, east and south, the operation from the north, east and south is to seize the east of the highway, which crosses the country from north to south and is located in the center of the Cherkasy settlement. This region aims to largely control the Dnieper region waterway. Air support is required. This operation may take another 3 weeks after 2-3 weeks.
IV. Phase Objective: Capturing a large piece of land from the Russia-Belarus-Ukraine union, from the region of the city of Kyiv to the south, with Vinnytsia in the center, in the south of the country to meet the Russian troops on the Moldovan borders. There is a lot of talk about the operation to the capital of Kyiv, it is likely that the troops will continue the operation by going over this place. However, Russian troops can serve in Kyiv, which is more suitable for residential conflicts. These residential conflicts are long-lasting. Air strikes are required. The duration of the conflicts in Kyiv is unpredictable, but it should be taken into account that it can exceed 3 months, it can be very long. IV. The typical time for Phase Goal is 4-6 weeks.
Russia has no intention of operating using a weapon of mass destruction (nuclear, biological or chemical). Political statements do not seem to be related to the plan of action. However, it can continue to create a kinetic effect by using long-range strategic rockets from the sea and from the air.
Calculations include these times unless logistical obstacles and restrictive weather conditions present very critical conditions. At the end of a total of 9-12 weeks (for the sake of keeping in mind, let’s call it 3 months from this period) the capture of (approximately) 2/3 of the country’s land area in the eastern region of Ukraine (still the sea area is completely in the hands of the Russians). It may be possible that some settlements, including the capital Kyiv, in the Eastern Ukraine region, which Russia will strive to achieve in the operation, remain in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s air power is still negligible. After this period, it is practically not possible to create an air force and operate again for air dominance.
It may be acceptable that the war, devoid of sea and air, is based on resistance only by built-in conflict, but if it is considered as a piece of land, a very large part of the country, roads and railways, agricultural lands (which will not have an airway anyway), agricultural areas, underground resources, a large part of the Dnieper river is in Russia. If the presence of Russian-speaking people in this region is added, it seems that even if there is a government in Kyiv, its effect will not be much.
During this time, a significant population of Ukrainian people may either be displaced or be refugees. The fact that foreign fighters have come to defend the country, as the Ukrainian authorities have invited, will create a situation that will create a complete contradiction. Similarly, considering the possibility of Russia bringing in other warring groups to balance the situation, Ukraine may turn into a difficult situation to control.
The Government of Ukraine is currently dependent on the military and information warfare aid provided by the United States and its Partners, primarily on the sanctions imposed on Russia, and it only seems to expect it to prevail. The extent to which the sanctions will affect the Russian administration is currently unpredictable. However; If the operation progresses in 3 months as indicated and Moscow can withstand the sanctions, then it would not be wrong to say that Russia may have a stronger hand than Ukraine when it comes to sitting at the table.
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