Finally, Russia began to give hints of what it wanted to do. But when? It’s been a month since the war started, they also admitted that they couldn’t get what they wanted, giving the world a message like “I made a plan in stages, the first stage was completed”. They have good reasons for themselves, but from the beginning, I wrote, “I would have done this”. A month of lost time for Russia! So who lost? Russia; but basically the world. Are there any winners?
Let’s give excerpts from the Kremlin (Sergei Rudskoy) statement:
- The main objectives of the first phase of the operation were met. The military capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been significantly reduced, which allows efforts to focus on our main goal – liberation of the Donbass.
- In addition to Kyiv, Russian troops managed to block Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy in the northeast and Mykolayiv in the southwest and took control of parts of the south. Doing so distracted the Ukrainian army and limited its ability to resist in the Donbass. (Referring to Rudskoy, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and other besieged towns,) “We never planned to attack them.
The main evidence is the map showing Phase-I. On this map, the Russians mark the areas where they are advancing on Ukrainian territory. On the east of the map, the Luhansk and Donetsk regions are marked and they want their autonomy. Now take Donbass (let’s say Donbass in general), where they say “this is what we want to do”.
What did we learn and what did we not learn? This operation is called Special Operations. His goal: to save Donbass. So (I speak on behalf of the Russians) the plan should be: destroy Ukrainian military capacity, liberate Donbass easily. (Now I am speaking for myself,) However, this cannot be a sufficient explanation of the operation plan! It’s rhetorical anyway. Of course, if Ukraine is weakened to a great extent, Donbass will be free, and it will be under the sovereignty of Russia… There is nothing incomprehensible here. But Sergei doesn’t explain what really needs to be understood! It should have been like this: Things did not go well, we wanted to take Kiev and occupy the country to a large extent, it was a kind of Lightning Operation, it did not happen, now let’s say Donbass is the main target, believe it…
On the day of Vladimir Putin’s invasion, he had appeared determined to overthrow the “regime ruling on Ukrainian land.” He even stated that there might be Russian sympathizers in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and that they could dismiss the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky with a coup. Judging by this briefing; Zelensky sits in place, as planned, a coup in Kiev was not carried out with the Hard Power causing a great shock in Ukraine.
Sergei doesn’t explain what really needs to be understood! It should have been like this: Things did not go well, we wanted to take Kyiv and occupy the country to a large extent, it was a kind of Lightning Operation, it did not happen, now let’s say Donbass is the main target, believe it…
There are some questions related to the subjects reflected in the field during the term. What are they?
- Was a Russian Brigade Commander murdered or not by his own soldiers?
- Did Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu have a heart attack?
- According to Oleksandr Gruzevych, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Land Forces, the Ukrainian army counterattacked in Kiev. According to this statement, with the exception of Irpin, Lutizh and Makariv, control in the northeast of Kiev was again in Ukrainian hands. Russian troops bombard Irpin and Lutizh. Now there is such news, is Russia really in total retreat?
There are explanations from different sources during the period. Let’s look at these:
- Pentagon information confirmed Ukrainian attack on Russian warship.
- International media wrote; According to intelligence estimates, it was announced that Russia will send 10 new tactical battalions to Ukraine.
- It was announced that troops were moved in Georgia.
- A similar statement attributed to the Pentagon, Russia is recalling its soldiers to transfer from Georgia to Ukraine. (Assessment: This shows that Russia’s existing troops in the Ukraine field have failed.)
- It is a very interesting development that a part of Kherson fell back into Ukrainian hands with the counter-attack on 25 March. (Assessment: This makes it difficult for Russia to launch an attack on the strategic port of Odessa.)
- Statement of the Ukrainian General Staff, “Russia transferred new troops to Belarus to renew its offensive power. From the Black Sea, 4 Russian warships crossed the Kerch Strait and entered the Sea of Azov.” (Assessment: These ships can come from the Odessa offshore and return to their duties after resupply.)
- A US official accompanying Joe Biden during his visit to Belgium and Poland said that the US does not consider Russia’s statements as new and should see if anything has changed tactically.
- The Pentagon has confirmed that the plan to liberate Donbass has been put into action. In addition, he announced that more US military aid to Ukraine was on its way to Kiev. It was also reported that supplies will be sent from Georgia to Ukraine. (Assessment: If the military unit is leaving, it seems that they will have organic weapons with them.)
There was also a painting from Sergei Rudskoy’s presentation. This table, which is also seen below, gives numerical and proportional figures how many Ukrainian military equipment of different classes were hit. According to this table, for example, 35 of 36 Bayraktar TB2s were destroyed and the success was 97%. Let’s take a look at the others: 60,000 of the 260,000 (total) staff (7% on average); 1,587 (65%) out of 2,416 tanks; 163 (29%) of 535 MLRAs; 636 (41%) of 1,509 wholesales; 112 out of 152 military aircraft (73%); 75 out of 149 helicopters (50%); 148 (82%) of 180 S-300 and BUK M1 missile systems; Of the 300 radar stations, 117 (39%) are shown destroyed. This table does not include guided missiles such as the anti-tank Javelin or the anti-aircraft Stinger, which the West provided with assistance. However, Ukrainian officials make speeches implying that they won the war with them.
Ukraine resisted, in a way no one expected. Russia made a lot of mistakes in logistics, tactics. I stated that it was understood that Russia did not choose a good season for the war, that there were many logistical problems, and that its operational plans were insufficient to meet its political target(s). On the other hand, Ukraine’s; It is understood that he made good defense, used the geography well, exploited the logistics lines, drew Russia into the city war, used the support he received from the West (light weapons and guided rockets, intelligence, etc.) well.
It has been a month since the operation began (February 24 – March 26); With what Ukraine did, what Russia couldn’t do, what it explained, albeit slightly different, what the Western press gave a cautious statement as a “senior military officer”, add up all that came out? Well, it is expressed again by saying “official from the Pentagon”, looking at the briefing of the Russian Ministry of Defense yesterday, we will look cautiously, what does it mean? Then you must have a reference and if you can get a result by stacking them up, you can have a new evaluation.
I have always had a reference! It is the Phase-I Donbass that Russia shows in the ranks on the map I have given as the Russia’s Plan. Like this:
As of March 25, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the first phase is over and the operation continues. To where? They have just taken 93% of the area they want in Donbass, if we look at them, they will carry out another 7% of the operations. Will they then make peace? Maybe the Russians are probing the ground for a peace right now, that’s another. But if there is a military plan and progress is to be made on the plan, then that first phase operation should continue until the highway running from north to south (between Belgorod and Crimea) passing through Dnipro (from Donbass to Dnipro marked with a thick red arrow). In the meantime, pressure should be made in other places, not to wait. Currently, Sergei Rudskoy does not say this.
If the operation continues, the second, third and fourth phases marked on the map are also marked and their reasons are written in the relevant article. This is how the plan is made. There is a map and a description: Is Russia Losing in Ukraine According to the Principles of War? This is the only way an expert who knows military science looks at war in terms of principles.
NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.