Geopolitical Contraction

1 Temmuz 2022

There is talk of the new Cold War, there are those who call it the Cold War-2. Let’s make a geopolitical determination based on the 2019-2035 global outlook. Of course, this is a geopolitical assessment, not a prediction of how the developments will turn out. I won’t have an explanation to say whether there will be a war or not. If we take the projection in the way I am going to present it, we will understand that the issues that we can follow develop depending on the reasons that are built these days. Let’s put it this way, no step is in vain.


The evaluation of the USA was as follows: If no measures are taken until 2035, China can overtake the USA from all directions, and this should be prevented.

More recently, work for entities such as AUKUS and QUAD has been carried out more frequently towards the end of Donald Trump’s rule. The date the button was pressed began in 2020 when Joe Biden entered the White House.

A process has been entered in which the United States and the United Kingdom will act together. It has a wider scope, but in this context I call it the Anglosphere for short. With BREXIT in December 2020, the United Kingdom chose the path of independent progress in its global policies from Continental Europe.

With his first visit program in March 2020, Biden provided the consensus and consolidation he needed in the context of the G7, NATO, EU. It had already ensured the strategic union of Australia and New Zealand within the framework of the Anglosphere, together with the United Kingdom in the G7, and put its projects into action.

Since then, the G7, NATO, EU, AUKUS group has been brought together in terms of strategy, defense, armament, economic and technological cooperation, and foreign policy engagements.


The USA seems to have taken the G7, NATO, EU, AUKUS and QUAD to a certain extent in the structure that became evident with the Biden Doctrine. However, the balanced politics of India in the context of QUAD still continues.

Now let’s open a parenthesis to NATO. As stated in the London Declaration in 2019, NATO included the Arctic Region, Cyber-Space and China into its mandates, and also included the countries it describes as “Deep Partners” in this text. These countries were primarily Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. From this sentence, NATO assumed a global mission.

Within the New Strategic Concept prepared in Madrid at the end of June 2022, NATO’s China target and the Deep Partners I have listed were included more extensively in the text, and a planning for NATO’s activities in the Indo-Pacific axis was initiated with the preparations made.

Among the main issues we saw as soon as the Biden administration took office in January 2020;

  • In March 2020, the G7 restored NATO, EU partnership,
  • US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 and
  • In February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine.
  • In the Ukraine-Russia War, the USA, G7, EU and NATO immediately started to apply Smart Power.

In this context;

  • Defense and deterrence using NATO,
  • Support Ukraine,
  • Sanctions against Russia in various fields, especially in economic and energy,
  • There have been intense cyber and media applications.

It was significant that at the beginning of February 2022, just before the Russia-Ukraine War, Vladimir Putin visited China on the occasion of the Beijing Olympics. Meanwhile, he made some deals with Xi Jinping and Putin. It seems that, considering the idea that the West would act as a whole, these two Asian countries, from this period onwards, Biden defines the leaders of these countries as “autocrats”, they would act together strategically, but China would support Russia without drawing much attention. . Today, it seems that there is a “Russia-China partnership” in this way.

Now we can continue to examine the details of our analysis on the map given at the beginning.


  • The main aim of the USA is to leave China behind in the global competition and power struggle with the measures to be taken until 2035.
  • It is to cut the ties between Russia and China as much as possible.
  • It is to put into effect counter and preventive projects against China’s global projects.
  • The USA has calculated that China may attack Taiwan as of these dates, taking into account China’s First Phase Military Modernization Program in 2027, the estimated production of 700 nuclear warheads, global internet infrastructure programs and projects, and technological advances. It is to develop and implement all kinds of measures by the USA, taking this situation into account.


  • Before the Madrid Summit of NATO in June 2022, a package of 650 billion dollars was put into use for the G7 Counter-Silk Road projects, in the opposite direction of China’s projects within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in the first plan at Biden’s summit with the G7 countries.
  • New Strategic Concept launched at NATO’s Madrid Summit, where “Deep Partners” Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand were officially invited to cooperate, defense, deterrence and technology plans against China were put in place, plans on Cyberspace were reviewed, new plans were made in the context of the Global Nuclear Threats.
  • NATO has deployed its deterrent power in Eastern Europe by increasing it, fortified the border region with Russia, and put into effect the measures known as in the Cold War time.
    The membership of Sweden and Finland to NATO, which is one of the Scandinavian countries of the Arctic Region, was opened and the passage to the Atlantic was strengthened in this way.
  • All applications within the scope of NATO in terms of Ukraine’s weapon systems, infrastructure, training and military doctrines were valid for this country. In a sense, Ukraine has become like a de facto NATO member.
  • All the efforts of the US and its Partners (or the Western Bloc) within the framework outlined will need to be geopolitically defined.

In the context of the main issues and developments I have mentioned, what the US wants to do is to narrow the field of China. It is possible to say that a phased strategy is in place. According to this; today Russia is being worn out, and China will subsequently be given more concentration. Another explanation for this is the “one enemy” principle. So now the enemy will be Russia, in the 2027s China will be. Preparations are accordingly.


Geopolitically, I defined the “Zone of Influence of China and Russia to be Constricted” and marked this region on the map with its approximate borders. In addition to Russia and China, Iran and North Korea are also threatening countries for the United States. These are included in the National Strategy Document. Therefore, these countries are located in the marked region.

There has been a de facto effort in recent days, it would be useful to pay attention to such matters. Russia and China called on the BRICS countries to create a “reserve currency union”. In the first place, they stated that they would consider joining Iran and Argentina as well.

Moving forward the idea of ​​the China and Russia Influence Zone to be Constricted, we need to answer the question of how this work can be done. The Biden Doctrine explains this in part: With the Alliance and Partners and the implementation of Smart Power, all areas of national and global power elements will be ‘constrained’ at the same time and will be achieved or will be attempted. In other words, there may be some who define it as “containment”. No problem, the point to be highlighted here is the marked geopolitical area.


Considering within this framework, I believe that the strategic developments that we need to follow in the coming period will be determined to some extent. However, without concluding, I should state the following in the context of foresight: we are in an increasingly tense period in which methods of “strong alliances, maximum deterrence, cutthroat competition and constant taking the lead” are needed.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

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