While the Russia-Ukraine War is taking place, we open up for discussion many issues regarding the global struggle between the dominant powers. The essence of the theme, which I remind you at every opportunity, is about what is seen when viewed through the big window. I use this type of lens in this article as well; general picture and a forward-focused systematic perspective. It is the USA that stacks and develops experiences for gain and reflects what it has developed in the struggle for global dominance into its policies.
There was a period in the last century when it became very difficult to explain the differences between the great powers. However, over time, there has been a change in the perspective of the criteria that fill the concept of “power”. It became clear that when looking at opponents, one should not only look at the elements of hard power. Soft power was a prominent element in the USA. With this power, he even began to think that he could defeat his enemy.
Looking at the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) towards the end of the Cold War, a simmering doubt about whether they really were a great power became apparent. The USSR had enough capacity to fight its biggest enemy, its warehouses were full of weapons, they conducted nuclear tests occasionally, they used propaganda equipment, they had military exercises all over the world, they even made a few moves in military conflicts with their doctrines that seemed overly aggressive, but there was no assessment of their strength. While it was being done, there was always a question in mind.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was constantly watching and evaluating its enemy, the Warsaw Pact. Looking at the spirit of NATO’s plan, there was a difference. It was necessary to take every precaution to be prepared for war. However, since fighting is very wearisome, a way to get rid of the Soviet threat forever had to be pursued without resorting to this route. Could US soft power be the way to win without fighting? If the different outlook in the spirit of the Alliance was accepted in this way, would it really be possible to get results on the enemy?
Fortunately, the United States of America (USA) was able to make very strategic moves at that time, and was able to speed up the processes of ending the Cold War and the disintegration of the USSR. The outstanding leadership of President Ronald Reagan should be mentioned here. However, in this struggle, neither hard power nor soft power was compromised, both were applied fairly.
Could researchers today have skipped over the smart power exercised by US President Joe Biden?
The Russian Federation (RF), which has a large geography in Eurasia, has abundant underground and surface resources, stretches from the Atlantic to the Pacific and has a strong power in the Arctic region, is one of the biggest enemies of the USA in the recent period. Will the intelligence capacity of the USA, which defeated the USSR, be able to regress the RF and turn it closer to itself this time? The question can also be asked, will RF shrink while the USA becomes a bigger power?
When it comes to growth, it should not come to mind as countries occupying enemy lands in history, it is meant to achieve a result in the sense of tying it to their own policies. In other words, the USA wants to dominate the RF. Moscow views this as an existential threat.
So, how will this growth method be possible in practice? By making a strategic plan based on smart power application! Biden did just that today, and he’s doing it successfully.
Politicians, bureaucracy, leaders, powerful and elites in the RF that haunt Ukraine are aware that they are cornered day by day.
The Russian Federation made moves claiming rights in Ukraine in 2014 and carried out the actual processes leading to the annexation. He saw Ukraine as a strategic position within his sphere of influence that should not be lost. He pointed to NATO enlargement as a threat to his own existence. The US has made the kind of preparation that has developed its own strategy until 2022.
In the intervening period, in the 2016 Presidential elections, there was Russian interference in US democracy. This was a move of defiance in the form that RF wanted to continue its efforts to become a great power again and to influence the USA. The US national threat assessment identified this, viewing RF’s interference in US democracy as an act of war. Former President Donald Trump’s time has passed with compromat debates.
RF also wanted to influence the 2019 election ballot boxes of the USA. All the effort of Russian President Vladimir Putin was to have Trump elected president for another four years. The two great powers, the USA and the RF, fought the main battle during the raid on the US Congress building in Washington. Joe Biden did not lose the White House to Trump, Putin’s compatriot.
The main result achieved by Biden and his supporters was this: to end Russia’s attempts to interfere with US democracy, to launch a counterattack, to initiate the Long War process that will dominate RF.
In fact, the Long War goal is not directly against Russia, the real power struggle is with China. If the US dominates Russia and creates a subordinate area, it will also secure control of China. It is an issue that is voiced on every platform that China will overtake the USA in the 2035s. So, until the US inflames its struggle for supremacy against China between 2035 and 2049, it must complete its business with Russia between 2022 and 2027.
Biden’s Long War plan has two phases: 1) with Russia from 2022-2027; 2) With China between 2035-2049.
Biden would start this long war or rivalry, its foundations would be laid in Biden’s time and the necessary systems would be put into operation. He would enforce the Biden Doctrine and the US establishment was behind the President. The grand strategy of the USA was updated and scenarios were tried together with smart power applications, the Alliance and Partnerships system was put into use. Withdrawal from Afghanistan. Relations with Anglospher were strengthened. The process of NATO enlargement has been accelerated again. Additional troops were brought to Continental Europe. Nuclear weapons depots and launch vehicles have been renewed. Cyber Warfare stations and necessary infrastructures were established. In February 2022, Russia was allowed to enter Ukraine, which it sees as its sphere of influence. Today, he is implementing his strategy against Putin, whom Biden openly calls “the enemy of democracy, autocrat, murderer, butcher…”.
During the Cold War, the Russians were posing a nuclear threat to the world, but there was no Nuclear War. It is mentioned that there are similar threats today, but it is pointed out that it will be easier to make peace and find an honorable exit instead of war. The question is: Will the US power and experience, which defeated the USSR during the Cold War, not be able to achieve this today?
Two months have passed since the war on the Ukrainian front began. US strategy is progressing successfully. By the end of April, politicians, bureaucracy, leaders, powerful and elites in Moscow think they are cornered. The appearance of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on April 22, who appeared to be unsuccessful with President Putin, who seemed more angry, was proof that the situation had become critical. In his speech on 25 April, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov talks about peace in one sentence and the risk of nuclear war in the other. If Putin’s options are either to make peace or to use nuclear weapons, the situation is already clear.
What did the USA lose by implementing this strategy against the RF? The USA did not have any apparent loss, but also gained some gains regarding the establishment and leadership of the next world order. There is nothing left to be said for Russia and its leader Putin: committing war crimes, recklessly killing others, an invader, an enemy of democracy, freedom and human rights. This is what the USA and its partners continue to say on every platform today. If this is a campaign that will create a common perception, it seems that the USA will be the winner again.
The work schedule and homework for Biden and the next US presidents are ready. The situation is easier to see if there is peace on the Ukrainian front. Until the USA makes the moves to fight for supremacy with China in the Pacific, which will become more evident, it may be interested in increasing its influence over Russia. However, if the war on this front prolongs or expands, we can see the active steps to be taken by the USA and its Partners to bring the situation under control in a short time. Here, NATO, the largest military power in the world, will step in. Although the front of the war is expanding, it will proceed with more military plans. Therefore, this period may be a period of intense risks.
One great experience, and another great experience that comes after, is placed on top of this; Looking ahead, the global dominance sought is maintained with the power of this accumulation of experiences. The steps taken by the USA today should be read like this. To the experience that ended the Cold War, they added the experience of the Full Spectrum Warfare method directed towards Russia today. I give a clue to those who are wondering about tomorrow: Neomedieval War.
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