When and how will the Ukraine-Russia War end? How are the conditions in the world moving and what are they changing? What effect does this change have, good or bad? Before giving your own answers, I’d like to take a look at what I’m thinking of, such as Neo-Medieval, Post-Ukrainian, new-normals, new strategies. This way we will be able to explain everything better, because change is big and cruel! The Ukraine issue has almost reached a certain point. The parties more or less determined what they could receive. But I must say in advance, the real war has just begun, and it will take a long time…
How will the Ukraine-Russia War end? Wars do not end in the Neo-Medieval.
Does the war have to end? Russia does not leave the occupied lands, there is a de facto process, the crisis continues, even if the conflict stops, do not expect an ideal peace in these lands.
However, the area covered by this situation is not only dependent on the geography of Ukraine. The order that will be seen in many parts of the world from now on is a fragmented, unstable world order that includes de facto divisions.
It will be difficult to get used to it. Rightly so, this is an outcome that will not even be accepted by most people and society. On the other hand, the international system will also be insufficient. Are we not already questioning the United Nations, the state of International Law?..
This new order is called Neomedieval. (I should point out that I got this statement from the author Umberto Eco.)
A Ukraine in this part of Europe is one of the countries of this Neo-Medieval order.
What is your reaction when the talk of “Russian imperialism” is mentioned? What is this Russian Tsarist or Empire claim? Well, can you be looking at all these things in Ukraine as if you take it for granted? Do you expect Zelensky to enter into a bargain with Putin for the territory occupied by Russia? If there will be no such bargain, the occupation will continue and you will get used to this situation in time, right?
But look at the developments, the traffic has increased a lot. Some weapons are given to the Ukrainian army, but this does not end the war. Instead of Ukraine’s weapons of Russian origin, NATO’s weapons are replacing them. Currently, Ukrainians are paid with money from the West. Worst of all, how long this will last is unknown.
The status of the battlefield is clear. At this point, Ukraine is getting tired. The firepower of the Ukrainian army is running out and the Western world is supplying it. However, at the tactical and operational levels, a balance can be struck in existing lines of contact. As a result, it is out of question for Russia to back out of its strategic goal.
Just yesterday, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine made a quick statement, “We lost about 50 percent. That’s about 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems,” he said.
What are the new NATO weapons? America M777, M142, Stinger, Javelin, Phoenix Ghost; UK Starstreak, M270, Harpoon; France sent Caesar. NATO’s C4ISR systems are used. The infrastructure in this direction has been changed.
There are those who follow what happened at the front. However, even among leaders, it is now discussed differently. Once distracted. There is talk of energy, hunger and migration… In fact, economic crises are growing and creating a global impact. Income inequalities are increasing almost everywhere in the world.
Even if it is said that this war is over today, just like after the World War, we need to see a long conference period starting from tomorrow in order for the global balances to be settled.
Did the world pass to this New-Medieval order because of the Ukraine-Russia War? No, it was before. However, it could be said that “the ground facilitated the way this conflict happened”. It is necessary to evaluate the outcome of this war within the framework of the developments in its course.
At the beginning of the war, Russia said to the Ukrainian side, “NATO is a threat to me, do not be deceived, do not let me near my borders.” But it seems that Western weapons and NATO methods are increasingly woven into the fabric of the Ukrainian military. In other words, whatever the current Russian origin of the Ukrainian army has is exhausted or is about to be exhausted, Western origin systems have been replaced or are being replaced. This was not enough, a Western conference or meeting is held almost every week, and the Ukrainian administrators here act as an extension of the Western system in a political sense. In this case, an understanding of regional cooperation and neighborliness seems to have lost its blood.
Now, basic inputs such as weapons, money, politics and legislation coming to Ukraine are of Western origin. Just yesterday, Ursula von der Leyen gave her homework on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. Take a cursory glance at them, the European standards as such, the Western-style reforms that need to be made, the European audiovisual legislation.
In this case, even if the conflict part of the war was over, Russia’s expectation became different; The attitude that can be called the “re-Russian system” may prevail. This is a dangerous situation for the West, it must be prevented immediately. This is the time, this is the time! Of course, this is the issue I have mentioned, if the internal structure of Russia continues to remain as it is and they do not experience a change themselves.
POST-UKRAINE AND NEW NORMALS
As you can see, the war necessitates the Post-Ukrainian order, which is one of the original issues I put forward. Post-Ukraine has its own differences. Forget what seemed possible at first. What happens after the war or the chain of conflicts will be completely different. All these can be described as “conditions to get used to” or “new normals” on the world stage.
This is realpolitik! My Neo-Medieval prediction ignores my description of the future of the Ukraine-Russia War, as some experts have difficulty expressing this real situation.
It is very normal for those who focus on the front to say “more firepower” side by side. However, this is enough to balance the conflict, it is not a way to end the whole war. If the war continues and even longer, it will include the Indo-Pacific region in the period of 2027-2035 in China.
So am I saying this? No. That’s what current US President Joe Biden’s definition of “The Long War” is. Well, if this war prolongs and spreads, where could their fronts be? There are many candidates… However, as a result, each of them contains a description of the fragmented, unstable geographies like Ukraine, which demand more the West’s facilities and systems. Looking at all this, I call it Neo-Medieval. This means that we will see the form of globalization of this Neo-Medieval understanding in the future.
There is intense Information Warfare in this Neo-Medieval setting. Now we see the best of it, both as cyberspace and post-truth tools are used. What would you expect? Will the US attack with these methods and Russia will remain unanswered? This subject I am talking about is not for the right/unjust accounting, it is for describing the real situation.
However, Western experts (and their projections in my country) are in front of me with incomplete information, aside from being biased in opinion, which I can describe as their common features. Leave me alone, they mislead the public; they cover up the real danger, and that is never acceptable.
In front of history, I condemn these important names who made public (for example) accounting for “three artillery batteries and ammunition”. These people are paid high sums by some circles to have them write articles, make them speak at the podiums, and repeat their news on global media platforms. What do you say to this situation?
How will Ukraine win? I’m not talking about the fronts, I’m asking about the war. Don’t pretend to answer, don’t waste my time. Do not repeat to me those news already given in the bulletins, be realistic and answer, speak like a real expert.
In February 2022, Putin could not find what he was looking for in the Kyiv region, citing the fault of his own generals and the lack of his troops. Then he turned and headed for another target.
Today, Zelensky says, 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory is under Russian occupation. This makes about 150 thousand square kilometers. Well, South Korea’s surface area is 100 thousand square kilometers, can you imagine what that means?
Add to this global crisis the issues of natural gas, oil, critical mines and most importantly food… Consider even Ukraine, which could not get the harvest this year as it wanted and will not be able to plant next year… In this case, will Africa starve for a few years?
Here are the issues of the New-Medieval and Post-Ukrainian order… So our topic is at a point far beyond the issue of three artillery batteries.
Some of the Western experts, who seem to have hung realism on the wall like a coat, seem to have never understood or do not want to understand Henry Kissinger, the veteran who spoke or was asked to speak in Davos in May clearly expressed. A discussion started, what was the starting point, the 2014 invasion or the February 2022 invasion?
This discussion does not interest me, those who wanted Kissinger to speak gave a message to many places at the same time. As it should be understood, it was said, “Let Ukraine be divided, some of it given to the Russians, the rest of it transferred to the Western system as both NATO and the EU.” Of course you understand…
What did Pope Francis say about this war? Maybe there are those of you who haven’t heard of it, so look: “This is not Ukraine’s war, this is Russia’s war. I wonder who incited Hitler to start the war, possibly the Jews… The Ukraine War was someone’s provocation…”
I leave the correctness/falseness of the word aside, here’s a “War of Religions” recipe with a Neo-Medieval approach. The Catholic Vatican blames the Jews for inciting war. There is more to this in the Pope’s head… But it means that in these cases, “provocative” may be the issue and religious propaganda tools may be used.
If this is happening today, something else will happen tomorrow. If it is one today, it may be a hundred tomorrow… At least, a suspicious situation is mentioned; one religious group expresses doubt about the other, and at this stage of the war, when more weapons are being calculated, 500-800 soldiers are dying daily on the front…
Do not be deceived by the statements and efforts put forward to “not” war. Don’t look at who made how many diplomatic proposals, it seemed more peaceful. One may appear to be making a very peaceful transaction, the media may write about them widely, but the other party may not trust him. Does anyone know what the guarantees were, how much was given, and how much was provocative when not given? So just to claim that the Russians don’t want peace is just to take sides. Don’t get me wrong, the opposite is also true for me; Nor would I accept the information that the Americans do not want peace. What I am pointing out is the possibility that the information given to the world can be misleading, so it is not correct to look for a diplomatic criminal. If there is a mistake, such a war broke out because both sides were more or less at fault, or those who led the notables of the parties to a mistake calculated it.
Let’s ask: What did the Russians change during the USSR period, and the Americans after 9/11, even though they stayed in Afghanistan for a long time, what was the result? What do the Americans, British and Russians expect from Ukraine today?
The war began, the Ukrainians themselves said, “we never expected such an attack”. But there was an attack… Now the problem is with the Ukrainians, these peoples, mostly of Slavic origin, their history is the same… But according to the result, a gap has emerged between the Slavs born in Kiev and those born in Moscow. Even this is sufficient for a description of the Neo-Medieval order. They draw maps of divided Ukraine, let me give some information for those of you who don’t see it. Slavic Zone, Pro-Moscow Zone, Jewish Zone, Germanic Zone, Fascist Zone, Mixed Zone…
For example, it is said that “the Russians established a proxy government in Kherson”, it is true. It will be similar in other regions. The number of these deputies will increase. Take the example of Ukraine now, look at 2035 and how many regions will be proxied government on the route from Eastern Europe to the Indo-Pacific?
The United States maintains its influence with proxy governments all over the world.
To explain this proxy issue, look at my description, here I mean “an administration that has turned into a subordinate of a dominant power”. This may not be like the Kherson example that sometimes occurs; It can also occur in the form of a legitimate state of the type we know, under the command of a dominant power. So, do we not see such governments today? Don’t governments change hands easily? Is there no interference in domestic politics within the sphere of influence? Aren’t “post-truth” procedures used in these effective domestic policy plans?
CONCEPTS AND INSTITUTIONS
What is being talked about today? Neo-Nazi, dictator, fascist, imperialist… How far will these concepts help Ukrainians return to their homes? How long will the farmers plant their fields? Who will guarantee the realization of grain exports to African countries under the threat of hunger? What is the United Nations’ function here? Are these issues being looked at as “if we send three more artillery batteries, everything will be fine” or “three more Russian oligarchs should be sanctioned”?..
Will the only solution emerge according to the roadmap drawn by US President Joe Biden before the war? In March 2020, in Geneva, Biden and Putin argued for more than four hours and failed to reach an agreement. Do you know what Biden said to Putin, what he wanted from him?
What was the opinion of the Ukrainians, did anyone ask at the beginning of these works? Why didn’t they push forward a referendum in the initial period? What was the purpose?
In a war, not only people die, but also cultural heritage artifacts, values or people’s hopes die. This is especially true for Ukraine, and as a result, destruction is taking place in this country. At the moment, life in Moscow or other Russian cities continues close to normal.
Today I put the Neo-Medieval order at the top of the concepts. This makes it very easy to explain everything. The Neo-Medieval order has a neo-aristocracy waiting to be served and subjugated. Decision makers are at a lower level. Underneath this is the proxy system. Even the issue of sovereignty is realized with a hierarchical narrative.
It is a fact that the real understanding of sovereignty cannot begin without territorial sovereignty. After this is achieved, the subject of sovereignty gradually becomes debatable.
For example, to whom the sphere of influence belongs, the clamp of sovereignty narrows accordingly. In fact, who gives the gun, whose money is the reserve money, in what atmosphere does the economy develop, even these are questions to discuss the issue of sovereignty.
Concessions granted to another country, such as the issue of sovereignty, should also be discussed in this way. For example, questions such as who will be traded with what kind of tax exemptions become important. So it’s a question of partnership. A place you partner with has an expected account of time. However, in the context of partnerships, other privileges come into play if the issue is based on an account. For example, political support can advance a government or weaken it if support is withdrawn. Today, these external political influences are more clearly planned and programmed events.
These are currently more dependent on Zelensky’s preferences than with an ordinary Ukrainian, and secondly, on those around him.
Similarly, ask a Russian citizen, they will follow Putin, but that’s not a big deal. However, in the “war or peace” option, Putin has the authority and his preferences are important first.
The discussion of a similar question is somewhat different for the USA. How? Remember the era of the previous President Donald Trump. The influential structure called the “establishment”, which is effective in US foreign policy, spent four years with Trump in some form of contradictions. Joe Biden’s plan was clear when he arrived, and now the President is responsible for continuing the policies inherited from former Democrat President Barack Obama. But the US citizen hardly seems to care about it.
Could we evaluate a “hierarchy of internal dynamics” issue that emerged from these examples? At least we can say that the supporter of Zelensky is the USA, today the enforcer is Biden, Russia’s interlocutor is not Zelensky, but this strong structure inside the USA. In these conditions, it is Biden and Putin who dominate for the decision of war and peace. . You can add other actors to these equations, respectively. For example, European Union, England, other G7 countries…
Imagine, for example, how Moldova in the mouth of the ball will decide what it can choose under these conditions! This issue of sovereignty is one that should be subject to such a hierarchy explanation.
DEVELOPMENT IN STRATEGY
Young academics make statements by mentioning the names of classical strategists as if they had just discovered them. There is no need for that! The Neo-Medieval order also includes classical ones, but covers compositions like musical works.
The “heartland” or the “edge-belt” thing around it is just a classic. Of course, there are explanations such as the land theory, the sea theory, etc. These narratives are not wrong, but let young strategists think: Newtonian Physics was valid until Einstein. Einstein Physics was understood by everyone, it went beyond Newtonian Physics. But Newtonian Physics did not disappear, it remains. These gradual developments complemented each other.
The classics didn’t disappear in strategy either, why should they? It would not be right to ignore some points while seeing the US having soldiers in every corner on a global scale, these are actions with strategy. However, humanity’s strategies, for example, have evolved since the discovery of cyberspace. It is not possible to ignore these developments.
Anyway, today’s strategies have to be both complex and multidimensional. It should include capacities for intertwining ideas and managing chaotic conditions. The space has gone into space and the virtual world, I expressed that. Time passed so quickly, even nano-seconds remained so simple. Smart Power is being used now, it has a great strategic effect.
WINNING IN STRATEGY
If you ask Putin, he will say “We achieved this goal in Special Operations”, but he would not say “We won the war”!
If Zelensky can expel all Russian soldiers from their lands, then you can hear a word of victory from this war. I wanted to point out the difference…
Do you know who wins in neomedieval terms? The most destabilizing!
What did you expect? If you expect Ukraine to win, it will not happen, there may be tactical or operational victories for Ukraine. But strategic victory is not possible.
There are also those who look at what’s going on from afar, like China, these days, don’t say “but it’s not the warring party”. Because you cannot solve today’s equation without thinking globally.
Who is the winner between the United States and the European Union? I kept the UK separate in this question, you may have noticed. I gave these speeches at the time of Brexit. The Anglosphere union is different, the union of Germany, France and Italy is another. This is how questions and answers should be looked at. Currently, the leading actors of the European Union are trying to solve the problem given to them by the Anglosphere power in the best way possible. But let’s not forget, they are also very experienced in solving such problems.
The account of those in Africa or other geographies is different. Whoever has influence in such geographies, it is necessary to make some decisions by examining some changes there.
Those who cannot examine the conditions of the medieval period of Europe cannot put forward an idea about the environment of the Neo-Medieval period today, and cannot fully explain the meaning of what is happening. Let me put the same sentence as follows, it is not possible for those who cannot examine Europe’s Age of Reason to interpret the Neo-Medieval Age today. For example, why did John Locke say so in those days, but have you ever thought about what today’s John Locke is saying? It’s time to return to philosophy for Political Scientists!
CHANGED CONDITIONS FOR UKRAINE
Conditions have changed. It is highly unlikely that Zelensky will save his country from occupation. It is now clear that Putin will not leave the Donbas and Crimea. It is also obvious that the interests of the West are redefined in Ukraine. A divided Ukraine seems to be sufficient for now. Today, efforts are being made to persuade Zelensky and various circles. The conditions are being created for Zelensky to enter into a land bargain with Putin. It is easier to get results if the conditions are shown as if they occur spontaneously. Henry Kissinger, a veteran diplomat and wise man in Davos, took a role for this.
After Kissinger, looking at Zelensky, the United States and its Associates can now change their minds. Is it for such a purpose that the Westerners visit Kyiv more frequently these days? Are they saying that they support Zelensk for Ukraine to become a European Union country?
Some weapons are given to Ukraine, but draw three conclusions from this: First, Western military doctrine, weapons inventory and education system are being passed on in Ukraine, and the Russian system is gradually abandoned while fighting. Second, sufficient firepower support is provided to determine the decisive point of the battle. Third, when this cost is to be paid later, an invoice with a long list will be left in front of Ukraine.
In the meantime, of course, the supplied weapons will not be enough to completely drive Russia out of Ukraine, but Zelensk must be constantly told that “victory will be yours”. This “victory” theme will be repeated until Putin and Zelensky agree.
From now on, Ukraine is in the position of “de facto member state of NATO”. Russia pressed it, said “I don’t want NATO”, but with its weapons, doctrine, policy and goals, Ukraine is now a NATO member Western country. Not only that, Ukraine has risen to the position of a country on the way to the European Union.
These Westerners give Putin the Donbas and Crimea. In return, they link the remaining 80 percent of Ukraine to NATO and the EU. They agree to this fait accompli.
What is NATO striving for? “Europe’s security can be established if the EU and NATO borders are aligned,” he says.
If so, will NATO expand? Could Russia prevent this? Will the invasion, which Putin calls Special Operations, yield results? It’s like everyone gets what they get. On one condition, Ukrainians will have to digest this situation in this atmosphere.
You expected me to give information from conflict places like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, right? I know the front well… Fronts are limited.
Soldiers are not afraid to fight. You order to fight, they fight. Wait while such war orders are still being heard, you are too far away to speak of a victory yet, but there is no need for a victory in the Neo-Medieval order anyway!
In the Neo-Medieval order, the breadth of the sum total of the areas you destabilize and allow yourself to represent indicates a gain, and it cannot be regarded as a victory.
Where is the US target? in the Indo-Pacific. The “Grand Strategy” of the USA applies to this issue. Time depends on the “great tension” between 2027-2035. From today (between 2022 and 2027), Putin and Zelensky, and even leaders on other destabilizing fronts, are constantly struggling for the expectations of Anglospere and those who come under its arm, one may be running a little, the other a lot.
So we are just at the beginning of the process!..
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