Gürsel Tokmakoğlu|
Okuyucu
|
We continued to talk about Ukraine today, and we will talk about it tomorrow. These are the current issues… The main thing to keep in mind is about the big fracture (break). If we reach the 2040s without seeing this big break, without looking at the big picture, then it will be very difficult. Where did the year 2040 come from? The plans of the USA and China correspond to this time, so Russia has to keep up with it. So what should Türkiye think about? Look, this article will explain to you the post-modern war method, the winner and the loser very clearly, those who do not look at what happened in the great struggle are those who think small, those who do not count!..
CURRENT ISSUES
Before moving on to the big picture, let’s review current issues. You need to be able to put them in their place. The last few days on the Ukrainian front: The USA gave Russia the guarantees they demanded. The USA has prepared 8,500 soldiers to send to the crisis region. NATO started naval and land exercises in the Ionian Sea. The Normandy Quartet (Germany, France, Russia, Ukraine) met in Paris, with another meeting in Berlin two weeks later. Biden spoke to Zelensky by phone. Blinken met with China. Sweden is massing troops on the Russian border as a precaution. Putin is going to Beijing (Olympic opening February 4), then he is expected to come to Türkiye. German Chancellor Scholz goes to the White House (interview on 7 February). Germany has announced that if Ukraine is attacked, it will take important measures against Russia against the Nord Stream-2 pipeline. Western countries continue to send military supplies to Ukraine. Germany sent a helmet. Families of Western embassy staff in Moscow have returned to their homes. Russia conducts exercises and continues to dispatch troops. Su-35 planes arrived in Belarus, the exercise is starting. Russian soldiers continue their exercises on the borders of Crimea and Donbass. The Russian navy intensified its exercises in the Arctic region, the Baltic and the Black Sea. Lavrov said we don’t want war…
It might be said that war is at hand? War is always the last resort, but indispensable in great struggles. It is necessary to look carefully, especially in the big breaking moments, at least it is necessary to pass the process diplomatically without causing a provocation. Current events are important, but the strategic time has come…
POST-MODERN WAR METHOD
There is no such thing as glossing over the major ruptures and the tensions within. Great powers benefit in their own way after states of tension. How? There are certain accounts of interest. With war you win or lose: the great war is the great risk. By managing crises, you win or lose again. However, it is necessary to manage the process very well. If this is done well, as a result, the supporters are multiplied, the sphere of influence expands, the balance develops in favor, those who have served the other side until then will come to your side, even those who surrender may emerge… Partnerships are formed, your money and weapon systems are used, cultural ties take root… In struggles under high tension such results will occur.
Big countries take big risks so they can win. The risk taking parameter is a hint for what will be given or received from the outcome. Smaller countries seize opportunities, some don’t want to take the risk…
The great powers are in this post-modern war at every moment and in every field, on their own initiative, in a way that will win the interests I have mentioned very indirectly. Ultimately, the US states that it is engaged in Full Spectrum War; Russia, on the other hand, refers to Hybrid Warfare or Non-Linear Warfare. This war is already going on, so these are the current issues, it is necessary to look at the big picture.
BIG PICTURE
Concepts, policies, leaders, periods… It is natural to have ambiguities in thoughts if they are not read together. However, the way to explain what is going on in life starts with seeing the big picture. Why is the big picture important? This is very important if it is desired to be protected from useless ideologies, diversions, propaganda and political uncertainties.
I prepared a chart for you; there are concepts, processes, policies, the struggle between powers. Timeline: I started from 2003, it continues as of today. Dominant Powers: United States of America (USA), Europe, Russia, China. There is a recovery issue for Russia; This means that there are processes that Russia went through during the turbulent times with the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), the end of the Cold War, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Countries and institutions mentioned in the process: Georgia, Ukraine, the Crimean Crisis, the ongoing Arab Spring process, Syria and Libya, which are important in this, even Türkiye, NATO and the European Union (EU), which is experiencing July 15, on the other hand, the Pacific that we should keep in mind. There are the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), important places such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, the South China Sea and the Arctic, whose context is worth explaining. The eras of Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are important about the political changes in the dominant power USA. Concepts: Neoliberism, Globalism, Western-type Capitalism and Western-type Democracy, Nationalism, Indigenousness, Eurasianism, Illiberalism, Oligarchic Capitalism, State Capitalism. From another point of view, the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) and the European Union (EU) are actually projects, we need to know about them too. There is a concept called Areas of Influence, this is a topic that is discussed at the summits between the dominant powers. Let me add a subtopic to this, I’m talking about Operation Gray Zone. Dominant powers physically do not want to face each other within the borders of their own countries, but they do face each other in gray operations in their spheres of influence. Countries in the gray areas come and go and oscillate in dark or light tones. And the great wind of rapid change brought by the Fourth Industrial Revolution…
WAR OF INFLUENCE
What is all this about? Although the subject looks like Ukraine, it is actually a war of influence between the USA and Russia. According to a common view, we were in a Unipolar World order; When wars started in the Middle East, for example, Saddam’s war… Let’s come later, today the issue is in Eastern Europe. Color revolutions began in Georgia in 2003 and in Ukraine in 2004. It is said that these revolutions were facilitated by the USA, the CIA, NATO, the Europeans or Soros. After all, the USSR was destroyed and there was a search for a new world order in all of these countries. In these countries, people became acquainted with money, consumption and the definition of welfare in the Western system.
In the USA, Democrat President Barack Obama came to power in 2009. In these periods, Russia must still be dealing with its own internal issues… The Obama era ended in 2017. In 2011, the Arab Spring began in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East (MENA). Syria and Libya are important countries and the problem continues to be very complex here. It was during this period that Russia must have recovered, because it remembered its former spheres of influence and entered some areas by doing exactly what the USA was doing. The procedures were clear: Terrorism, unconventional warfare, proxy recruitment, cyber warfare, the use of mercenaries, agreements with separatist elements… The USA called such activities the Petreaus Doctrine (even though its origins date back to Vietnam) with its Afghanistan War experiences, Russia called the Gerasimov Doctrine with its Ukrainian War experiences. .
It is believed that; The USA is aggressive, supporting terrorism, separatist, exploitative, Russia is innocent! There is no difference, they both pursue the same goals, they develop their spheres of influence, the war is fought here. Countries and societies in between are victims, they are being manipulated. Societies’ ideas are changing, but it should not be forgotten; In the gray zone war, both leaders, parties or separatists and communities, voters or supporters are played on. Therefore, there is a certain de facto situation between the USA and Russia in Syria and Libya: In addition to the countries of real interest (for example, Türkiye), the USA, Europe and Russia are in this geography.
In just such a conjuncture, Russia made a move and attacked Ukraine in various ways: annexation in Crimea and confusion in Donbass. (You can refer to the related articles to read the historical, geopolitical and strategic depth of these issues.) In summary, Russia could not bear to lose Ukraine and found the opportunity and saw the situation here as the most vital issue for itself. Black Sea; The sea is very important in strategy!
Meanwhile, there is an important political event in Türkiye: the FETO coup attempt on July 15, 2016. We discussed a lot, it is clear what happened… But there were even those who wanted to call it the “Turkish Spring”. Let’s come to the conclusion, if this coup attempt had been successful, what would have happened today, what would have been the difference? Let’s remember, almost every month, there was a big fatal terror incident. After July 15, nationalism and localism came to the fore in Türkiye. We can understand the reasons for this. What did we even experience? The assassination of Ambassador Andrei Karlov and the shooting down of the Russian plane took place in Ankara. The US did not give Patriots. The purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system came to the fore. The United States and Türkiye discussed this issue a lot as a matter of disagreement. The United States removed Türkiye from the F-35 project. Those who exaggerated the issue wanted to open the debate whether Türkiye should stay in NATO or leave. A wing of Eurasians and nationalists expressed their ideas about establishing full relations with Russia and China. A political section in Türkiye was in favor of full-relationship with the USA and Europe. There are those who use terrorism as a tool. For example, the issue of PKK/KCK and HDP became controversial. Moreover, the issues of Western-style democracy and capitalism, globalism, liberalism, neoliberalism and illiberalism have created debate in the country and globally. Here, it needs to be known to a certain extent; “Why did all this happen, what is its place in the overall picture?”
In the time of Donald Trump, Russia was very comfortable! Vladimir Putin was constantly laughing, taking pictures on a horse. Emmanuel Makron was constantly talking, criticizing NATO. In January 2021, the first major break in the world was experienced in the USA. The parties were Republicans and Democrats. In the US, the White House feud led to a Congressional raid. Joe Biden reminded the world of democracy from Washington. Then the breakup began between the USA and Russia. Fault lines were drawn, the sides were determined. The parties were not just for 2022, they were the ones who made the choice of a war that would last until the 2040s, a great war that had just begun. Because the next big break would be in the Indo-Pacific.
Of course, our main subject is not Ukraine; It is a war of influence between the USA and Russia. The US chose Eastern Europe as its operating area. The gray country in the sphere of influence is Ukraine. As a matter of fact, Russia is reacting to what is happening on its borders. The United States adheres to the Biden Doctrine. To put it another way, Ukraine and Georgia want to become NATO and EU members, whereas Russia resists. Russia describes the issue of “NATO enlargement” as a threat to itself.
It is clear what the NATO 2030 vision says. NATO is out of the question. NATO’s new target region is in cyberspace, the Arctic region and China, for which the mention of “deep partners” has stated. Today, the USA is in partnership with about 50 countries. (US Partners: G7, NATO, EU, AUKUS, QUAD, Israel…)
When the USA withdrew from Afghanistan, some experts said, “The USA was defeated”. There were exaggerations: “The era of the USA is over, it is dying…” Conversely, the obvious is that the USA, together with Biden, is in a change towards a different path, and they described their steps with Smart Power…
QUESTIONS
Let’s ask questions, for example, what will happen in five years? big picture says: The USA does not lose against Russia, on the contrary, it wins. A grand plan is at work right now. The United States is reining in cracking voices in Europe today and simultaneously tiring Russia out. Five years later, the USA, Britain and other partners will make the world experience a similar process in the Indo-Pacific region. The USA has already taken a step so that there is no Russia and China front against it. He wants to oppress China. The leaders of China and Russia today are aware of this. But as of 2021, once the arrow is out of the bow… If this is the case today, what will happen tomorrow? What should Türkiye do, does the future look clear? Liberal capitalism or coordinated capitalism? The Fourth Industrial Revolution happened. It is not about the change in the industry, but about the change of all the balances in the world. So what are the socio-political effects of this, what is happening and what will happen next? What should the vision be? At this point, there is no need for words, but those who have mastered the whole of the subjects will tell the result by making a head gesture. What would be the strategy of the person who has trouble seeing five years about 2040?
CONCLUSION
In times of maximum tension, which is likely to last for a long time between the dominant countries, some countries or societies in the gray areas tend to go that way, and some go that way: Winning and losing must be looked at in terms of the sum of these results. This is already a war! Because the domains of influence account comes to the fore. The most important issue today in this great breaking time; It should be evaluated as who is in the domain of which pole and towards where.
NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.
Gursel Tokmakoglu
