In this article, I will give some procedural explanations. By doing so, I will be able to clarify for you the situation that affects the outcome of this operation between Ukraine and Russia. The situation on the Joe Biden side is more understandable. Besides, I am one of the most revealing of the capacity used by the USA and its Partners in this war with their real intentions so far. But if the situation is explained comparatively, it will be seen that it will not be difficult to understand Vladimir Putin’s options.
President of the United States of America Joe Biden made his historic departure from Poland on March 26 and called the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin a “butcher”, reaffirming that the hostility between them was irreversible. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, entered Kyiv on April 9 and shared with the world the images of him waving his arm with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. It seems that Ukraine was giving signals that gave superiority to Russia, and the course of this war was developing against Russia.
Biden’s plan against Russia required answers to two important questions: First, will the sanctions affect Russia? Second, will the Ukrainian people show satisfactory signs of crossing the line of success in their resistance to Russia? It seems that the answers to both questions were beginning to satisfy Biden. Then it was time to dominate the situation.
Great powers like the United States or Britain operate precisely their decision-making procedures, relying on their well-established bureaucracy, intelligence, diplomacy, technology and wholly National Power capabilities. Moreover, by working with their partners and a well-established organization such as NATO, they take steps to minimize mistakes in the areas they set targets. It is not my purpose here to put forward a political discourse. Whether you like it or not, this is how they work. As it is known, they act in an extremely self-interested manner. Of course, their interests are at odds with one another; There is even enmity between them and some countries. At this point, the US National Security Strategy points out that Russia is their enemy.
While Russia and Ukraine were at war, the United States and its Partners provided full support to the administration of President Volodymyr Zelensky. They relied on their own intelligence to make decisions. They watched this war with a high capacity, even more than the warring side. They even relayed the available information to the Ukrainian authorities and military in real time. They listened, took pictures, increased their intelligence capacity in Russia. They made full use of Cyber Warfare tools. As it can be understood from here, while Biden or Johnson were making their own political statements, they did not make a decision just by looking at the news in the newspaper. Therefore, they have made more effort than anyone else to get answers to these two questions that I have pointed out. Ultimately, Biden was satisfied, according to his own intelligence.
There is a targeted measure of borders even before they turn on the money faucets to another country (here Ukraine). If this limit is reached, the rate of financial contribution is determined. Here just Biden decides from what perspective, let’s see him now.
In this chart I prepared, there are Ukraine, the USA and its Partners and Russia. From day D, time is running out. The last time I drafted this was the D61, April 25. The target set here for the USA and its Partners is 25%. Under this limit, Biden can confidently take steps on his side. Biden sees this from D20. There is a commitment for Partners in participation in sanctions. The target limit for Russia is 60%. As you can see, it turned out that Russia came to this border near the D30. However, it is necessary to be sure and confirm. In this regard, the process is followed. Even intelligence requests for the US are prepared accordingly. The decision limit on whether concrete results will be obtained in the field with Ukraine’s determination and will to continue the war has been determined as 50%. As you can see, there is no problem under the leadership of Zelensky and the Ukrainian people are fighting. The Ukrainian border line has been reassuringly below 50% since the D20s.
In this case, Biden and Partners decided in D20; They continue their progress by deciding to put pressure on Russia and increase support for Ukraine. Presumably, these decisions were clarified both when the leaders met at the NATO summit and during the contacts of the Foreign Ministers a few days ago. We see the effects of the Biden and Johnson exits and the decision to increase the scales from now on. The field continues to be monitored and finally comes the moment of confirmation. Accordingly, after D55, their intelligence confirms the situation. Joint decisions are made, and as a result, on April 25, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin go to Kyiv.
What I have explained so far are the details of the USA and its Partners determining their own steps. Now let’s come to Putin’s options.
Since Putin’s situation is developing against Russia, as I have stated, many indications regarding this provision must have been taken by the intelligence of the USA and its Partners as a result of serious studies. The situation of the army on the ground, the interaction in Moscow, the situation of the people and opposition forces, etc. Some target definitions and criteria are determined, and results are obtained by working on them. Like this:
Example Criteria for Russia (Putin)
- Pressure from Socio-Economic and Technological sanctions (if felt at 70% level and 4 months with increasing intensity) – Level 50%
- Pressure from Socio-Political and Media sanctions (if felt at 70% level and 4 months with increasing intensity) – Level 40%
- Ukraine’s resistance increased (at 50% level and 4 months if felt with increasing intensity) – Level 25%
- Increasing reaction from power centers inside Russia (if felt at 50% level and 3 months with increasing intensity) – Level 15%
- Operation not going as desired (if felt at 90% level and 4 months with increasing intensity) – Level 60%
- Deepening of Russian army incompetence (if felt at 90% level and 4 months increased severity) – Level 70%
- Invalidation of Putin’s policies (if felt at 50% level and 4 months with increasing intensity) – Level 25%
- Increased US Cyber War pressure (if felt at 50% level and 1 year with increasing intensity) – Level 25%
- Increased degree of anxiety about when Putin starts his main war (at 50%) – Level 10%
- Deadlock in Putin’s Special Operations plan (if felt at 50% level and 4 months with increasing intensity) – Level 25%
- Putin’s psychological status indicator (at 50% level) – Level 30%
As a result Putin has three options:
- (Compromise) He can sit at the peace table with Ukraine.
- (Obey) Ukraine will get tougher inside its borders and may aim to advance to Kyiv using all its resources, attempt assassinations and provocations on the borders of the US and its Partners, even consider using tactical nuclear weapons to deter.
- (Burning the ships) It can move towards unpredictable conditions by taking steps to turn Eastern Europe into a battlefield, willing to face NATO, and when it reaches this point, to take the Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) out of its warehouses.
Which of these three options seems likely to you? Still, indicators point to the first option.
But I have to give you a hint: These options are Putin’s. Such was the question. However, we could say what Russia would do. Then the options would be different.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will be in Moscow. Before that, there is a visit to Istanbul. The purpose of this visit will be to seek peace. But even the calendar is noteworthy: Have the conditions become clear to Putin, or is there a convincing picture? Then there is the Russian Victory Day on May 9, the 75th day of the war. I did not take kindly to the scenarios put forward because of this holiday, but it would not hurt to note this on the calendar. Maybe it has an impact on the options available.