Victory Day

This special day, which is celebrated as Victory Day by the USSR, which won the Second World War, is celebrated by those who participated in this war (for example, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan…) in the former Soviet countries and regions after the Cold War. The date of May 9 created an expectation in the West. What will Putin say? Putin gave his speech on this issue, which, of course, is of current importance. Now everyone will make their own conclusions. In the first place, I also had my findings.

First of all, I need to make the following reminder, I put the following sentences in my articles: “Almost everyone waited for the Victory Day on 9 May. There is an expectation that Putin will declare mobilization, but my assessment is not in this direction. Of course, Putin’s statements on May 9 will be well looked after. If Putin declares general mobilization on May 9, NATO will raise the level of alert. This showdown is a general risk situation for the region.”

Putin’s Victory Day speech is important for the WWII winners. I was against the connection of the Victory Day speech with mobilization from the very beginning, and that is how the speech took place.

The audience had high expectations for the US, Ukraine, and the war between NATO and Russia. I looked and I came to the conclusion that not only this conversation, but also other measures and signs that can be taken in the coming days should be looked at. Let’s wait a few days, if there is a big-decision taken, we will see its reflection.

Was there a hint of intimidation to the West at the parade? Russia parades the IL-80 Nuclear Warfare Command Aircraft over Red Square at the Victory Day demonstration. This is a message given to the West by Putin, I consider.

I noted some important points. Let’s take a look at Putin’s statements:

“We wanted to make an agreement with NATO in March, we wanted to negotiate a guarantee with the USA, they refused. They had other accounts.”

“We are fighting (fighting) to protect your homeland in Donbas.” Here again, the Nazi emphasis was put forward.

(To Germany and France) “2. Let’s not forget World War II.” From the very beginning, Putin made attempts to open the gap between the USA-UK (Anglosphere) and Germany-France (Central Europe).

“Ukraine was at the point of producing nuclear weapons!” (We have nothing to do but wait for other documents to prove Putin’s thesis.)

Naturally, we are heavily influenced by Western media-based campaigns and mostly look at Russia and Putin. This is a great struggle that is also being waged in the form of an Information War. Let’s take a look at the NATO enlargement argument, which has been the main topic of discussion since the beginning of the crisis, and the latest situation with this approach. What about NATO?

Before the war, Putin portrayed NATO enlargement as an existential threat. What did Russia face when fighting Ukraine? A NATO that took its military measures in Eastern Europe within a year and reached nearly ten times more power! So, when and under what conditions will NATO withdraw these forces from the region? Unknown. So, the power that Putin took against him is now in a different dimension than at the beginning of the war and is more dangerous for him.

The general assessment is as follows: The situation of guided-sophisticated weapons in Russia’s tactical and operative weapon inventory is not very bright, it emerged on the Ukrainian front. From this point on, Putin can wage an existential struggle against the West with exits based on his strategic weapons.

So the issues that we will follow from now on become even more critical. Worry about whether the war will expand further is not over.

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Gursel Tokmakoglu