Gürsel Tokmakoğlu|
Okuyucu
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Let’s evaluate the Ukraine War, which Russia calls “Special Operation”, in the general framework as of the 46th day. We can more or less understand what’s going on here. However, as I read, it will be seen that towards the end of the article, I will open the near and medium-term future for discussion. What will Russia, in other words, Vladimir Putin think, in the near term? What kind of tension will the world experience in the medium term, what does Post-Ukraine expect?
WAR OF UKRAINE
The war began on February 24, 2022. Russia entered the 3/5 borders of Ukraine, including the sea area, and attacked with approximately 100 thousand soldiers in order to be effective in a very large land area. Your goals; It was understood that the capture of the capital Kiev (Kyiv) and bringing the Zelensky Administration to its knees, the prevention of NATO’s entry into Ukraine, the resolution of the Donbass and Crimea issues in favor of Russia, by force.
Russia’s operation was watched carefully and until March 10 it was seen that Russia was far from a successful course that could achieve these aims. Uncertainty continued between March 10-25; “I wonder what Russia wants to do, why can’t it move forward”. The uncertainty seemed to end only after the Russian Deputy Defense Minister made a statement on 25 March. He said: “Phase One has ended successfully, now we’re moving to Phase Two, what we’re doing is Special Operations…”
BACK OFF
Afterwards, the Russian army quickly started to leave the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions (from the eastern part of the land with Sumy, which it could not enter from the north of Kyiv). This is called “withdrawal” in military language. Russia re-introduced the withdrawn troops from its east of Kharkiv, which it could not take, and reinforced it to advance the operation in the south, in the Donbass. The operation now continues in eastern and southern Ukraine.
II. PHASE
In this case, the situation between March 25 and today, April 10, which we observed, was already in the form of the reorganization of the troops, the new Russia is trying to be effective in the field called the Second Phase. The city of Mariupol may soon come under Russian control, they still entered the port area, the conflict continues. The accumulation in Izium has been completed, they can pass here. From Kherson in the south of the country there is room to move north, and towards the city of Dnipro, these could be maneuvers to hold the segment of land that would control the water resources of the Dnieper River.
WEST BLOCK
We look at the field, of course, but mostly we need to know what is happening outside, what has changed. The NATO Summit was held on March 24. On March 26, US President Joe Biden gave his historic speech in Warsaw, calling Putin “the butcher”.
The delegations of Russia and Ukraine held peace talks in Istanbul on March 29. This technical process continues with the video conferencing method. It is understood here that Zelensky states that “he will not insist on entering NATO” in order to come to a point of peace. The fact that Ukraine does not join NATO means that Russia achieves one of its operational objectives.
NATO AND THE ARCTIC REGION
NATO met again and the process of Finland’s entry into the alliance was followed. Sweden is also in the rim, but it seems like Finland will step up first. If this happens, NATO will have come a long way on the Arctic Ocean front. In addition, Moscow will be approached approximately 800 kilometers from the northern direction. Poland is in NATO, the midline is in favor of NATO.
NATO had already tried to approach Moscow from Ukraine, that is, from the south. If Ukraine could be included in NATO, the distance to Moscow would be 800 kilometers from here. Ukraine was not included in NATO at the time, this question will always be asked, why. Ukraine is not the main front for NATO (it would be more appropriate to say the USA and its Partners). If the main front is described as Eastern Europe, it would be correct, and this is the line stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
INFORMATION WAR
Meanwhile, interesting developments took place in Bucha on April 6 and in Kramotorsk on April 9. Allegations that Russia deliberately murdered civilians and committed war crimes became popular. While Bucha had some clearer findings, the disinformation debate over the missile (Tochka U) fired at Kramotorsk seemed to escalate. The Information War on both sides was at a more prominent stage.
NEW INCENTIVES
In this atmosphere, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union side announced new sanctions against Russia, and more weapons and financial aid packages to Ukraine. The EU side gave an opportunity to progress in the first step of the process towards incorporating Ukraine.
One of the most interesting developments is British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s meeting with Zelensky in Kiev. These two leaders showed off while walking around the streets of Kyiv. This event was identified as a great message to the world and a challenge to Russia.
S-300s from Slovakia were given to Ukraine. It is an important development in air defense. The British are supplying Harpoons that can be thrown at naval targets, likely to be sent to Odessa. British and American anti-tank and anti-aircraft smart missiles continue to be supplied to Ukraine. US Defense Secretary Gen. Austin made a statement confirming that they are providing intelligence support to Ukraine.
AIM
All this gives us a picture of the Ukrainian War. Today, Russia is effective in the 2/5 border region in Ukraine, including the sea, and is trying to consolidate its influence. Cities in Ukraine were destroyed, the loss of people increased, the people of Ukraine who were displaced from their homes increased a lot… Russia was reorganized in the military field, brought new troops, replaced them with worn-out ones, and the number of mercenaries like Wagner increased. In Russia’s own words, it is advancing in Donbass (westbound) and Crimea (northbound) in the Second Phase Special Operation. Perhaps in a month or a half, Russia will say, “Militarily, I’m done.” In the meantime, the ongoing technical-peace talks may also mature. Putin and Zelensky can sit at the table. These are the things that are happening in Ukraine, but… What is the real war, what is the target?
What will Johnson, who is showing his strength in Kiev today, will not do tomorrow!.. What will Biden, who is speaking from Warsaw today, what will he not do tomorrow!.. If France ends the elections (today), we will start to hear his voice as well. Perhaps the leader of France could even put himself in Napoleon’s place. Why not? There has been a lot of talk about nationalism in the world.
PUTIN’S LOOK
If it is taken so simply, will Putin abandon this operation, which he finished militarily (if they reach their goal in the Donbass and Crimea Regions), in terms of political, economic, technological and socio-psychological aspects?
Perhaps we will see a new challenge between the US and its Partners and Russia as a whole on the Eastern European and Arctic Ocean fronts. Putin may cut his activities in Ukraine with that much, but this was not the real war anyway; This was Special Operations!
Putin may focus on recruiting again and developing the arms industry with foreign support. For this, he needs money and partners. The development of these partnerships raises other question marks for us.
In short, the war has just begun, and it is called “Russia’s War”. Whether it’s cold or hot, I don’t know…
I describe this period as difficult periods, which we will see as Post-Ukraine, by adding socio-economic changes. We will experience post-Ukraine until 2049. China will be ready for global purposes in terms of military capacity in 2027. Then it seems that 2022-2027 will go very badly in Post-Ukraine.
CYBER-SPACE
With the Elon Musk project Starlink in the Ukraine War; Active in cyberspace with Microsoft and Meta (Facebook). We already see Bill Gates in every global project. Cyber Force Commands of the USA, England and NATO continue their activities against Russia. Maybe we cannot see these issues concretely today, but they are already preparing for what they can do in Post-Ukraine. I think this is enough to know. These are not countries, but global powers. In order to balance it, it would be nice to think about what we can put against them; maybe we just have to accept it.
CAMPAIGN
Today, media activities are carried out in the form of “news-comment” and with incapacitated experts. This is a conscious job. Because, “take the information and digest it right away, but don’t ask questions, don’t think any further” is required like this. “This is the news, that’s what it means, late to the other… But never ask about the 2035s, someone is thinking and preparing them for you…” The “campaign” for the social environment of the present time requires this.
HYBRID WAR
Yes, like that… Today, Russia and Ukraine are fighting in the field mainly in Conventional War. But it is clear that Hybrid Warfare is being waged on a larger scale and on the field, even on different fronts. The parties and methods of the complex Hybrid War being waged are quite different from what we see in Ukraine today.
THE LONG WAR
I wanted to tell you about the present day of the Ukrainian War, I did. Its beginning, its development, the interventions of the parties and the picture that has emerged today. Well, I asked “tomorrow” and I’ll leave it here for now… The real war has just begun. Biden uttered the famous phrase: The Long War!
NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.
Gursel Tokmakoglu
