Ukraine-Russia War Situation Assessment 


I will continue to monitor the war between Ukraine and Russia in terms of “operational objectives” by updating it in the format below. It is a format prepared to explain this situation and an evaluation of the values reached according to the analyzes made. It is an analytical work, a course for those working in this field. However, what is wanted to be given here in essence with this analysis is about the course of the Ukraine War and the impact of global sanctions. By looking at the updates here, you will be able to get an idea of ​​the overall evaluation and development results.

Even if we call it the Ukraine War, it actually continues between the order that the USA defines as “liberal democracy” and (today) Russia’s order that is described as “autocratic/oligarchic capitalism”. (Think of the cold war time, in the rivalry between the USA and the Soviet, the Russians were advocating communism. This situation is different today.) Ukraine is stuck between these two orders, but this country is a geopolitics that has a decisive identity.

The operational plans have objectives and the assigned commander follows it. Those who choose the operative and strategic targets in the main headquarters are the attack target workers. Those who choose the targets to attack make the kind of choices that will select the commander’s operational targets. Attack has target categories and lists.

Let’s evaluate the first 10-Day (February 24 – March 5, 2022) Period of the Operation. Here, the current level was expressed with the value determined in terms of target level and feeling time according to the determined parameters desired to be obtained. Analyzes were made about the USA, Putin, Zelensky, the Ukrainian people and their army. Now let’s look at the results.

General Evaluation of the “G-10” Ukrainian Front (Strategic/Operative/Tactical):

  • Ukraine’s overall situation assessment: Average 47%.
    • Current level: 12%
    • Evaluation: Tendency to prolong the duration of the war.
  • The level of negative impact of the war on Ukraine, which is under Russian attack, is 25%.
  • There are no actors who are on the verge of giving up on the parties. The duration of the war (at least 3 months) tends to be prolonged. If the war lasts for 3 months, the Ukrainian people will come to a critical threshold with both Putin and Zelensky, who are close to giving up.
  • Things to watch:
    • Leadership status of Putin in Russia and Zelensk in Ukraine.
    • The global influence of the USA and its partners.
    • Critical cities of Kyiv, Kharkov, Odessa and Mariupol at the moment.
  • Featured battles and operations:
    • The Global Information War: It is developing in favor of Ukraine and its partners with the United States supporting it.
    • Tactical City Battle (residential conflict). If the Ukraine war cannot be resolved in the short/medium term, the risk of Guerrilla War will continue.
    • Strategic Level War: Russia is posing a nuclear threat. The state of the war at the strategic level is at the level of “threatening”.
    • Shadow War: The assassination of the leader (Zelensky) is on the agenda.
  • Russia’s Conventional War target selections:
    • Strategic: Separately, the message to the world and the people of Ukraine and the nuclear power plant (Zaporizhia) to cut the electricity in the country.
    • Operative: 1) Air force capabilities and capabilities. 2) Kharkov governorate building. 3) Television antenna to cut off communications in Ukraine (Kyiv). 4) Odessa port.
  • Russia’s Conventional Warfare weapon selections:
    • Strategic: Not used yet, showing menacingly.
    • Operative: 1) Guided 3M54-1 Kalibr missile fired from aircraft (there is also a naval version, they will fire it when necessary). 2) Iskander missiles fired from the surface.
    • Tactics: Artillery, rocket, thermodynamic munitions.
  • Propaganda themes:
    • USA (global suppressor): “We will end autocracies.”
    • Russia (aggressor): 1) To the world, “I will start a nuclear war.” 2) Regarding Ukraine, “We are brothers. The administration and the Neo-Nazis among you are separating us. Do not believe the imperialists.”
    • Ukraine (innocent side): “We will protect our free country from invaders. If necessary, we will use nuclear weapons.”
  • Cyber ​​attacks are carried out by Russia.
  • Russia will unite the 4 pocket areas it occupies and control 60% of the country’s border region (including the Black Sea).
  • Russian progress in sectors:
    • I. Sector (Kyiv): The capital is resisting. However, as of March 4, the conflict intensified in Irpim, north of Kyiv. From here, civilian evacuations increased.
    • II. Sector (Donbass): Kharkov in the north and Mariupol in the south are resisting in the hands of Ukraine. If these cities are captured by Russia, the operation expands to the west in the direction of Dnipro. The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is located between Dnipro and Mariupol. Operations in this sector are concentrated in this area.
    • III. Sector (Black Sea): If Maliupol and then Melitopol are taken by Russia, the Azov Sea gate will pass into the hands of Russia. If the operation proceeds in the direction of Mikaloyev after Kherson, the city of Odessa will be squeezed to the seashore and will be under the blockade of the Russians. Tactical superiority in the south of Ukraine is about to pass into the hands of Russia. The operation is likely to develop north and west from here. If the Russian ground troops advance from the Donbass sector to Dnipro and the blockade of Odessa takes place in the Black Sea sector, the troops can unite and reach Vinnytsia in the western direction to the south of Kyiv and capture at least half of the country.
    • IV. Sector (West): The region open and suitable for logistics and humanitarian aid for Ukraine. The continuation of control of Lviv is important for Ukraine.
  • Russia could not seize the Ukrainian air power, the support of the USA and its partners can reach the operational areas with transport planes. However, Ukraine’s lack of air power does not allow active defense, surface troops (except for operations in cities) may remain unprotected in the field.

“G-10” Global Overview:

  • The sanctions against the Russians are very extensive, global. (Socio-economic, socio-political, technological, transportation and communication, media, etc. are being developed in every direction, covering all elements of national power.)
  • Global Economic War indicators are led by the USA and its partners. (There is a global inflationary environment. Oil, natural gas and wheat prices are on a high course. Dollar/Ruble currency parity is developing against Russia. Ounce gold price is watching almost high. Russian stocks are falling in global stock markets.)
  • There is no global energy risk, it can be substituted.
  • The global investment center trend is in the USA.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

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