Ukraine War (D50) Evaluation

I stated that I would continue to monitor the war between Ukraine and Russia in terms of “operational objectives” by updating them in a certain format. This is the fifth report after the most recent release, in the form of the G50 report covering 4-14 April 2022. This report, prepared in 10-day periods, is unique in its field with its analytical information, presenting the war in both detail and as a whole, explaining the issues related to what will happen, and containing correct, accurate and necessary information. The report contains important questions and important answers.

From the day D (February 24) to the day D50 (April 14), the main lines of what happened in the war are seen in this flow. In Ukraine, the Russian army began evacuating the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions between 25 March and 6 April. He saw this as necessary for reorganization and concentrating on the targets he had clarified. From now on he will head towards Donbass. He will definitely want to take Mariupol in the Sea of ​​Azov. Moving north from Kharkiv, it will control the Dnieper watershed. All in all, it will be aimed to achieve efficiency on the Belgorod-Crimea highway passing through Dnipro and to defeat the 4 Brigades (53rd, 54th, 56th, 95th) there.

First (April 7), Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov, and then (April 12) Putin stated that Russia’s casualties were high. According to Putin’s statement, the Russian losses are as follows: 19,600 soldiers lost their lives, 732 tanks, 1,946 armored vehicles, 349 artillery systems, 111 multi-barrel rocket launchers, 63 air defense systems, 157 aircraft and 140 helicopters were destroyed. It also lost 7 ships/boats, 76 fuel vehicles, 124 UAVs and various 1,406 vehicles.

The commander of the operation was changed and Aleksandr Dvornikov, who previously served in Chechnya and Syria, was appointed.

I had previously criticized Russia’s operation with the Principles of War. According to this; If you have a big land power, you will know its problems first and then you will start an attack based on weight center, raid and security, taking into account a maneuver accordingly, I said. I pointed out that there was a problem with the command and control aspect. It is seen that the Russian army in the field has come to a better position in terms of War Principles with these recent changes.

Let’s look at it from the perspective of the USA and its Partners. On March 24, there was a NATO summit, and on March 26, US President Biden had a “killer” exit from Warsaw to Putin. With the hope of peace, Russia and Ukraine held a meeting between delegations in Istanbul on March 29, and after that, the negotiations were carried out in the virtual environment. As soon as April entered and the Russian army started to show signs of recovery again, new issues and events quickly emerged.

NATO Foreign Ministers met in Brussels, which was important for Finland’s membership. But messages of determination and support for Ukraine were repeated. The United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom have announced that they will provide more arms and financial aid to Ukraine, and they will impose more sanctions packages on Russia. Weapons including the S-300 began to be supplied in Slovakia. The transfer of armored vehicles from Europe to Ukraine within the framework of aid was observed.

Footage of civilian deaths was released in Bucha (April 6), and statements by various leaders that Russia had committed war crimes intensified. United Nations Human Rights Council took decisions against Russia (7 April). Afterwards, images from the train station in Kramotorsk were published, again pointing to civilian deaths. Various speculations were made about the Tochka-U missile, which was stated to have been launched on this situation. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson came to visit Kiev and they showed their strength by walking down the street with President Zelensky. Again, as of April 11, allegations that chemical weapons were used in Mariupol were put forward. On April 12, Joe Biden accused Putin, whom he calls a “dictator”, of committing “genocide”. (Joe Biden uses this expression of genocide as a political weapon, not legally.)

On the other hand, on the same day, Zelensky presented the images of the opposition billionaire Viktor Medvedchuk, who is known for his closeness to Putin, to the media, and suggested a prisoner exchange. Earlier, the Russian side said that they violated the provisions of the Geneva Agreement because they rejected Ukraine’s prisoner exchange proposals. In the last statement, the rejection of the change came from Russia regarding Medvedchuk.

Ukrainian President Zelensky again asked the West for weapons aid. He stated that if weapons are not given, the deaths in the cities will not stop. If the war drags on, how much weapons can be supplied from outside remains an important question mark.

Judging by all this, while Russia is recovering on the ground and increasing its pressure on the targets they have determined, on the one hand, new weapon systems and reinforcements are coming to Ukraine, on the other hand, an intense Information and Political War has been declared. At this very point, Russian President Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko appeared together at the Vostochni Space Base and gave a message.

Let me just add my assessment here: Russia’s place to send a message to its rivals is a space base. The month program statement is important. As the lunar program is forward-looking, it also includes the message “we are strong”. Putin wants his partnership with Belarus to be seen. It seems that the army fighting in Ukraine needs motivation. In my opinion, there is a whole month lost due to mistakes in the operation for Russia. Of course, it requires morale and motivation. Putin continues to praise Russian weapons. Showing the weapons for striking power is a matter of message, as he did before. It seems that Russia has not reached their goals yet, and they will continue the operation. In my opinion, this means increasing the pressure in Donbass for at least another month. This means taking Mariupol and controlling the Dnieper watershed from Kherson to the north. On the whole, gaining the ability to expand into Dnipro could be Phase Two goals. Putin has stopped needing to explain the reason for the war! It got my attention. Their aim is shown to be about protecting Russia. They are what they previously called “existential” and the removal of NATO from the region. The most striking issue is the rhetoric that “negotiations have come to a dead end”. Why should the talks get stuck, why did Zelensky get to this point? There are two issues: The first is the effort to frustrate Russia’s influence. The second is that Zelensky was under the influence of the Economic and Political War method, in which the USA and its partners concentrated.

Russia-Ukraine Conventional War

It is at the operative level. Russia called this war “Special Operation”. Details are below:

Although its power capacity was high, the military situation had started to turn against Russia, and the G30 then renewed its target. The new target area (Phase Two) is marked on the map below. It is seen that Russia has moved to the Second Phase position in Ukraine. The map below shows the Dnipro-centered Belgorod-Crimea highway line, the progress lines in Donbass and Mariupol. It is in this region that the Second Phase of Special Operations will continue. This process will be observed for another 1-1.5 months, showing that attacks with heavy losses and destruction will be made.

In Donbass and Mariupol, Russia’s firepower continues to oppress. In order to turn the balance in Izium in its favor, Russia wants to send troops from Kharkov to the south, while the Ukrainian forces are trying to prevent this.

Kherson is important in terms of water resources. Having captured Kherson, Russia is trying to keep it and wants to expand its operation to the north.

The Russian Naval Blockade continues. Ukraine has declared that it has confiscated Russian merchant ships that had existed since before the war in the port of Odessa.

However, the most important development took place on 13 April. Ukraine announced that it hit the Flagship Slava Class Moskva Cruiser, one of the Russian navy forces off the Snake Island, in Odessa, around 6 am (YSI) with 2 Neptune anti-ship missiles launched from the coast at a distance of 60-65 Nm from Odessa.

Russia’s Flagship Moskva with a crew of 530 is a full arsenal. Equipment on top: KA-57 Helix, 2x20xOSA-MA SA-N-4 GECKO, 2x5x533 mm Torpedo, 64 S-300 F SA-N-6 GRUMBLE, 2xRBU 6000 Anti-Submarine Rocket, AK-630 Anti-Aircraft, 1 Pair AK- 130 130 mm L-70 guns, 16 P-1000 VULKAN SS-N-12 Sandbox anti-ship missiles.

With this equipment, the ship could easily protect itself and even the many Russian warships in the region, but such an event is a complete negligence. It would be appropriate to attribute the negligence to the lack of intelligence and threat assessment.

As it is known, the Snake Island was taken over by Russia for a while, and then it was taken back by Ukraine.

In addition, the Russian navy in this region came to this region before the war started and they were kept (almost stationary) without changing their positions. This is something that should not happen in maritime.

What is expected is as follows, just as Putin dismissed the failed commander, now it will be time for the Black Sea Navy Commander to be dismissed.

The Moskva Cruiser was tried to be towed to Sevastapol but sank on the way. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced this to the world around 23:00 at night. The distance between the point where the ship was struck and Sevastopol is about 120 NM.

The south of Ukraine is partly under Russian control. Despite this, the critical conflict continues in Mariupol. The conflict is within the city. Russia has gone to destruction by using excessive force. There is even shooting from the sea. Recently, the contact between the resisting forces in Mariupol is on the verge of being lost. Russia wants to control Azov completely.

Nowadays, Russia produces about 300 sorties with tactical fighter-bombers. Flights are concentrated in the Donbass region. The Ukrainian army continues to shoot down aircraft and helicopters, albeit a little, with shoulder-fired missiles. Russia has deployed additional fighter-bombers to the Voronezh square. Flanker and Fencer fighter-bombers are stationed in this square, as well as helicopters and transport aircraft. Recently, Russia struck the Dnipro airport. In addition, Russia struck the S-300 battery in Ukraine, Dnipro, with the Caliber missile.

While the war continues, the target categories that the Russian army can hit in Ukraine with aircraft and missiles in this period can be: Train stations, all air and sea ports, logistics infrastructure points and facilities, bridges, weapon / ammunition warehouses, command and control centers (Kyiv stands out. ), air defense systems.

Other Types of Warfare Featured and What to Expect

Global Economic War: It is developing in favor of the USA and against Russia.

Global Information War: It is developing in favor of Ukraine and its partners with the USA supporting it. In the last period (after April 6) the pressure of the Information War increased.

Strategic Level Combat: Russia poses a nuclear threat. The state of the war at the strategic level is at the level of “threatening”. NATO sees this as “rhetorical”. Nuclear War is not expected. Of course, Russia has things to do before that, it can try to influence its rivals with intense Intelligence Operations.

Putin can stop his activities in Ukraine with this much (Zelensky had already pointed out that if there is an agreement for Donbass and Crimea, it will not join NATO). Putin looks at the Ukraine War at the operative level (Special Operations). The real war continues with the USA. In this case, if there is no agreement between the rivals in the future, a new challenge may be seen between the USA and its Partners and Russia on the Eastern Europe and Arctic Ocean fronts as a whole. Putin may focus on recruiting again and developing the arms industry with foreign support. For this, he needs money and partners. The development of these partnerships raises other question marks for us. In short, the war has just begun, and it is called “Russia’s War”. Whether it’s cold or hot, I don’t know…

Post-Ukraine: If we add the socio-economic changes, we will see the world as Post-Ukraine. We will experience post-Ukraine until 2049 (Great Rejuvenation). China will be ready for global purposes in terms of military capacity in 2027. Then it seems that 2022-2027 will go very badly in Post-Ukraine.

Cyber ​​Warfare: Cyber ​​attacks are carried out mutually by Russia, the USA and the UK. The USA and its Partners seem to be more effective in this regard.

With the Elon Musk project Starlink in the Ukraine War; Active in cyberspace with Microsoft and Meta (Facebook). We already see Bill Gates in every global project. Cyber ​​Force Commands of the USA, England and NATO continue their activities against Russia. Maybe we cannot see these issues concretely today, but they are already preparing for what they can do in Post-Ukraine. I think this is enough to know. These are not countries, but global powers. In order to balance it, it would be nice to think about what we can put against them; maybe we just have to accept it.

Russia may be developing its propaganda with the technology company Yandex.

Hybrid Warfare: Today, Russia and Ukraine are fighting with Conventional War weight in the field. But it is clear that Hybrid Warfare is being waged on a larger scale and on the field, even on different fronts. The parties and methods of the complex Hybrid War being waged are quite different from what we see in Ukraine today.

Long War: Joe Biden keeps repeating: The Long War! We are in a period of long wars…

Other Developments

• Russia imposed sanctions on 398 Americans and 87 Canadians.
• Britain will deliver Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine. It will be used against Russian warships in the Black Sea. This issue, which coincides with the shooting of the Moskva cruiser off the coast of Odessa, is quite remarkable.
• The Pentagon has made a claim for its anti-satellite weapons program in the cyberspace battlefield we can’t see. Russia and China are working together on weapons systems that can hit US satellites.
  The number of sea mines found and neutralized by the elements of the Turkish Naval Forces is 3 in total.
• According to the UN Human Rights Report (April 11), there are 4,450 civilian casualties due to the war in Ukraine (2,558 civilian deaths and 144 injuries, including 71 children).
• Poland supplies about 100 T-72 tanks to Ukraine.
• US officials say they think a ceasefire in Ukraine is not imminent. They say the conditions are not suitable for the ceasefire.
• US Defense Secretary Austin made a statement confirming that they are providing intelligence support to Ukraine.
• British and American anti-tank and anti-aircraft smart missiles continue to be supplied to Ukraine. US President Biden announced. Support continues with the last 800 million dollars aid package. On February 24, the US Department of Defense announced that military support since the outbreak of the Ukraine War amounted to $2.6 billion.

Conclusion: General Evaluation of the “D50” Ukrainian War

Putin gave the signal to “continue” for the operation. While the period of permanent ceasefire and increasing peace initiatives continues, it can be evaluated in the sense that the Information and Political War initiated by the West and the new weapons given delay the peace for a while. It should be observed whether technical talks for peace/truce will continue in the coming days.

We will continue to see Russia’s progress in Donbass and Crimea, at least until the end of April, within the “Special Operation”, which it refers to as the Second Phase. In this period, destruction and loss may increase in the relevant regions (mainly in the conflict areas in the east and south of Ukraine). However, the entire operation may continue in May-June. Leaders must be invited to the peace table.

Ukraine constantly needs additional weapons to fight Russia and Zelensky expresses this. Ukraine has no other choice but to liberate the occupied territories. On the other hand, especially the USA, the UK and NATO are the ones who know best how to deal with Russia. But they give Ukraine “enough” the gun. Will providing enough arms to Ukraine prolong or shorten the war? Besides, imposing sanctions on Russia is intended to deter war. Sanctions are increased each time. Are the sanctions against Russia to prolong or end the Ukraine War? Who knows? These questions stand out. However, the United States and NATO have made it clear that they will not actually go to war.

I think what Biden calls the Long War is a candidate to drag humanity until 2049. Therefore, when examining the winners and losers of the Ukraine War, I believe that it is necessary to look at the situation from a more correct point of view.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu