Gürsel Tokmakoğlu|
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What is the way out of chaos? US staff must know the answer to this question. Continuous support is given to developments in Ukraine. A US politician also said today, ‘We are defeating Russia without a US soldier dying.’ Will the result be like this?
From the very beginning, the USA chose these 3 goals: 1) to weaken Russia, then democratize it; 2) To remove the Russian army and influence from Ukraine; 3) To remove obstacles to NATO’s further expansion goal.
In order to achieve success in these goals, the USA; 1) joined forces with its partners; 2) It made NATO ready in the European region; 3) It gave all kinds of support to Ukraine in order to fight against Russia (which is its main enemy) and keep its people alive; 4) It directed various types of punitive and damaging sanctions against Russia (especially on economic issues).
What did Russia do in response? Russia; 1) It chose to wait and see and accordingly dissuade his opponent from his intentions with classical frontal defense; 2) It made an ideological and political analysis of the opposing bloc (again, in the classical style) and started the process of influencing certain countries in the world against Western policies.
So, considering the US goals and the path Russia has chosen, it is too early to expect a result. Everyone now says that the war is prolonged. At this stage, the USA and its partners are also acting without hiding their actions in order to pressure Russia. In other words, the Western bloc shifted its gears forward.
What does the Western bloc see in this situation? He calculates that his plans are working well in the goals I mentioned at the beginning and that success can be achieved this way. So, what can Russia do? He chooses to move as slowly as possible. He thinks that with this slow method of moving, opponents will get tired as time drags on. Didn’t the USA and its partners think that the Russians would go down this path? They thought. They continue to show determination to maintain the situation in this protracted war.
Actors started to make long-term calculations. What seems right today may give wrong results tomorrow. Because in the strategic situation, the time factor came to the fore. When discussing World War III issues, such strategic choices are binding. No one can yet predict how Russia-US and even the US-China tensions, which may develop later, will escalate. A nuclear threat atmosphere is also mentioned among what could happen.
Let’s list the results from here: 1) In the comparison of actors, the basic idea of where governments see themselves also reflects the policies they will implement regarding the situations they encounter. 2) Those who do not learn from history do not know that the strategic choices they make can mediate the problems that have the potential to grow even more complicated. 3) For countries and leaders, the main goal should be to calculate the development of chaotic conditions, not to lose control in chaos, and to continue to exist when chaos emerges.
