In this article, we will consider a very fundamental topic of discussion regarding the Ukraine crisis. This debate continues both in the military and in politics. Will the alliance work for the Ukraine crisis, which has developed as a global issue? Will the determination of the Allies or the determination of Russia prevail? Let’s deal with this issue in terms of conceptual and balances in the field.
As a strong country, it will not be a problem for you to show determination. For example, when almost everyone said “You are right, my Führer” in Nazi Germany, you cannot think otherwise. Determination comes from willpower. Just as the will rules, politics embody it in that direction.
Problems can arise where different views are effective. Especially if it is necessary to show willpower in a deadly matter such as war, the views may immediately shift to other directions. The outputs may be damaged. Compensation for losses can be evaluated differently for everyone. Where there are differences, the issue that will be the basis for determination is about “unity”. This idea of unity depends on the unity of ideals and the manifestation of ideals and goals. It is essential to be able to agree on the purpose and to believe in it in all respects, in geographies where the elements that reinforce this unity and democratic values are largely settled.
Ways to win by fighting are not so easy. A certain price is paid. The time to pay the price occurs during the war or in the conjuncture that occurs after the war. The effects of this must be calculated very well. In this case, the first goal is to make the attacker go backwards from the point he has reached. Sometimes these back steps are hindered by the power struggle and the ambition of the leaders. It takes time to prepare for war. A time is spent here to linger.
But diplomacy is used to win without fighting. The main point in diplomacy is to ensure that the channels of dialogue are open. Stability is demonstrated even in dialogue. If different leaders in an alliance enter into dialogue with their opponents on their own and cannot show determination in this situation, the alliance will suffer. The most difficult stage is war, because it is difficult to fight without fear, to risk death.
Determination in diplomacy is also necessary for maximizing the conditions to be imposed on the enemy after the war. Continuing the struggle with the right arguments beforehand will both help to break the resistance in the course of the war and will bring up the more incipient post-war conditions.
The most fundamental point in stability is geostrategy. Strategists experience this by examining battlefields. For example, the will shown under Napoleon did not produce results that justified it for a long time. Although the military strategy was well-constructed, geography ultimately defeated the determined stance.
After reviewing these conceptual points, let’s look at the current issue we are experiencing. In general, the Ukraine crisis has the United States and Europe on one side and Russia on the other. There is an authority that shows determination for Russia. This view can be reduced to the microscale. For example, it can be studied from oligarchs to ethnic leaders. Economic sanctions become important here. Affects decisive stances for both sides of the fight. However, it would not be wrong to accept Russia as a whole under these conditions.
On the other side is the strongest alliance on the planet during this period; North Atlantic Alliance, NATO. At the time of its establishment, the aim for NATO was to win the Cold War. In time, the Cold War was over. Today, interests in NATO have changed a lot. US President Democrat Joe Biden began in March 2021 by resurrecting the Alliance and defining purpose. The Biden Doctrine pointed to this issue as a “struggle for democracy”. In this case, those who believe in democracy declared war against authoritarian governments and leaders, and NATO countries accepted this war. When he said that he declared war, weapons were not used immediately. First, there are conditions during the tension or crisis that are experienced today. In these circumstances, determination is the biggest deterrent. From the point of view of the Allies, if Russia backs down, withdraws from the annexed Crimea and withdraws its soldiers to their barracks, the problem will be solved.
However, accounts in Europe are not the same as in the USA. Because the operation area is on the border of Europe. Expectations here are much different. While Germany and France are running another dialogue process on this issue, the United States and the United Kingdom are making another effort.
Now it is time to express another method of calculation: the calculation between Geostrategy and the Alliance. Military observers will evaluate this Ukraine crisis. Will Russia’s geostrategic calculations, which appear alone, give better results, or will the US method relying on NATO?