Is Putin Unconvinced?

21 Nisan 2022

Russian troops took Mariupol. But this war is not over, as if it is not wanted to end. In this analysis; Mariupol issue, where is the new target of the Russians, the approaches of the USA and the UK who want to continue the war, the reactions of the Russian side, there is a warning from the Chinese President Xi, he expressed that he is not satisfied with the developments reminiscent of the Cold War. Finally, I will examine the peace efforts of Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.


Russian forces took Mariupol on the 57th day of the war. It will be remembered that Russian troops were reinforced in the region on April 6-12. Russia’s “Special Operation”, that is, the commander of the Ukrainian War, which was seen to fail, was replaced. General Dvornikov was appointed to this post. The biggest change came on March 25. It was declared that the Second Phase of the war had begun. Troops were withdrawn from Kyiv and Chernikov and sent to Donbass. These were Putin’s interventions to get results.

The capture of the city of Mariupol was important for Russia. Both the Sea of ​​Azov was completely under Russian control, and the Crimean-Donbass land bridge was made uninterrupted.


The Russian Army is loading heavy weapons on Ukraine in the Donbass region, and especially on the Ukrainian troops in the town of Kramatorsk. These days, the Russian troops are making devastating and striking attacks with their rockets, artillery and planes. There are also reports that progress towards Kramatorsk has begun. On the other hand, the Mariupol resistance ended today. Now Donbass and Crimea are on the table.


Let’s see, Russia did not succeed in Kyiv. Ukraine is fighting and can be decisive in the process. The US and its partners have seen this, and the US and Britain have inputs in favor of prolonging this war. Still, the war will end when Vladimir Putin realizes he has lost.

Putin began to think, “when and under what conditions should I get out of here?”. As the war drags on, the situation on the ground will overload Russia. The cost of war will become unsustainable for Russia.

US President Joe Biden should be pleased with these developments. Because the plan made in 2019 worked! So is Boris Johnson. Europe was relieved. Aid and visits to Kyiv continue…

Former US Ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul wrote in the Washington Post (today’s newspaper), “Ukrainians will ultimately defeat Vladimir Putin’s army. Ukraine will be sovereign and free once again. Only two questions are unanswered: How long will it take? And how many Ukrainians will have to die before Putin’s soldiers finally leave?”

I translated McFaul’s statement as follows: “It will be up to Putin to decide how much and when.”

The symbolic value of Russia’s May 9 victory day is important to end the Ukrainian War and to give Putin an “honorable exit”. This subject has been talked about for about a month, and it even created an expectation. In addition, we have been seeing signs of this on the field for the last week. But will there be peace?

The Kremlin’s signals are important. Kremlin Spokesperson Maria Zakharova called on Ukraine to a realistic solution without delay in the peace talks on 20 April. It seems that the temperature so far has risen. After that, they want to move forward on the Crimea-Donbass condition for a solution, but will they allow Zelensky, who has reached this stage, from the West?

“The progress of the negotiations depends on Ukraine’s acceptance of Moscow’s fair demands,” said Sergei Lavrov. Fair demands must be Donbass and Crimea. So, it’s said, give them here, let this be over.

The USA and the UK are aware of this situation. He delivers weapon aid to Zelensky at intervals. Biden’s new aid package was announced on April 19; Another $800 million worth of weapons and ammunition.

It is quite normal that Volodymyr Zelensky was given more weapons than the USA and Europe, because the Ukrainians are fighting.


Putin failed to take Kyiv in February 2022. After that, when he re-targeted his army on March 25, the picture of the Ukraine War became clear for us. On April 20, Putin continued his efforts to prevent further attacks. Russia made a demonstration with the Hypersonic new generation intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) named Sarmat.

For political reasons, the USA ignores this demonstration and the threat! Department of Defense (Pentagon) Spokesperson John Kirby called the missile test “customary activity” and showed that they did not care.

Putin talked about the Sarmat test. Pointing out that it had the effect of “like meteorites falling from the sky,” Putin pointed out that Sarmat was able to escape from the enemy’s defense in his speech. “The test will make the United States think twice,” Putin said.

This is armament, intelligence activities, economic warfare, etc. turned the world back into the Cold War environment.

Kirby’s dismissal of the subject can be characterized as rhetorical. However, Russia’s Sarmat ICBM test was on the table by the Kremlin in the New START agreement with the US authorities. Biden and Putin discussed this in Geneva (March 2020), and it was written in the text of the assurances Russia requested (January-February 2022).

On April 14, Russian President Putin called with Belarusian President Lukashenko from the space base and announced the Moon program. On April 15, Putin declared, “I will place Hypersonic missiles and new nuclear weapons in Europe,” he said.

Yesterday, Chinese President Xi Jinping appealed to the world, beware and let’s not enter a new Cold War situation,” he warned. To put it another way, he said, “Don’t go against Putin any more,” to the United States and its partners.

Xi is perhaps warning the world, what could be worse?


Despite everything, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs continues its contacts with Russia and Ukraine for a possible ceasefire and peace.

However, looking at the latest developments, Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also had to explain: “There are NATO member countries that favor the continuation of the war in Ukraine.”


In this respect, I can express that the front of this war is outside Ukraine. Ukraine is a region of operation. A peace at this stage would be undesirable, at least for the United States and Britain. Putin wants to strengthen his position with strategic exits. But that’s not how it is! If you have unsheathed the weapon, you will surely strike; If not, this will harm you, you will lose. Putin is now showing his sharp weapon to his opponents; But the West knows that he will not hit! Moreover, humanity does not approve of such a way of progress. Whoever it is, does not prefer to be recorded badly in history with big mistakes.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

Politika 'ın son yazıları


Rusya’nın Kharkiv Harekatı

Son günlerde Ukrayna-Rusya savaşında önemli bir gelişme var. Rusya için Kharkiv harekatı çok önemli bir koz olacak. Bu kez Rusya tarafı daha derli toplu harekat yapıyor, politikada daha akıllıca ifadeler seçiliyor. Zelensky ise endişeli görünüyor.

Politik Vizyona Göre Konumlanma Stratejisi

Ülkeler için sihirli kelimeler refah ve güvenlik, öyle değil mi? Peki 2030’lardan sonrasına bakın, dünyadaki gelişmeler ve Türkiye özelinde cevap arayın, vizyonumuz ve stratejimiz ne, refah ve güvenlik için neler düşünülmeli? Bu stratejik-vizyona esas olacak şekilde, politik anlayışımız, sosyo-politik ve sosyo-ekonomik etkileşimlerimiz ne durumda, neredeyiz, ne tarafa doğru gidiyoruz, riskler neler?

İsrail Gazze’de Ne Yapmak İstiyor? 

Hamas-İsrail çatışmasında 7 Ekim’den bu yana 212 gün geçti, Gazze konusunda ne noktadayız? Şurası net, 12 bini çocuk 35 bin Gazzeli öldürüldü, 1,5 milyon insan şu anda çok zor şartlarda yaşıyor, en son noktada Refah’a saldırı oldu olacak türü bir İsrail baskısı da sürüyor.

İkinci One Minute

Eğer dünya büyük bir krize doğru giriyorsa, Türkiye yaşadıklarının yaralarını büyük ölçüde sardı, geleceğe hazır gibi, ekonomik sorunlarla ilgilenmeyi bir yana koyuyorum, ama İsrail yeni ve kaotik dünya dönemine daha büyük bir sorunlarla gireceğe benziyor. Gazze konusu travmatik! Bu stratejik analizi, Türkiye merkezinde gerçekleşen olaylarla açıkladıktan sonra, 2024 itibariyle gelecekte bizi neler bekliyor, diye sorarak ele alıyorum.

Amerika’da Gazze Protestoları

Gazze'deki yaşanan zalimce olayların gerçekliği ve Batılı politikacıların ikiyüzlü uygulamaları bugün Amerika'da tartışılıyor ve protesto ediliyor. Yarın bu protestolar Avrupa'da da yaygınlaşabilir. Öyleyse diyebiliriz: Gazze sınırlarını aştı!

Okumadan Geçme