The Door of the Agreement Has Been Opened

14 Şubat 2022

The President of the United States of America Joe Biden and the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin spoke by phone the other day. This conversation, in a very balanced tone between them, lasted about an hour and ended with expressions of satisfaction. Short explanations followed. But it is interesting that although the USA and Russia agreed on certain issues, the world media ignored them. However, I will explain to you the interview and the main positions on certain issues. I will state the important details of the next steps to be taken. This is a guide for the Ukraine crisis and Europe’s security architecture.

What was the topic? Of course, there is talk about the Ukraine crisis, but it is mainly based on the scope of European security. Biden met with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky after meeting with Putin. Typical Biden statement: “He promised that the United States would respond swiftly and decisively to any Russian military action.” But does anyone know what Biden actually said to Zelensky? Why was this issue not discussed in the world, what happened in the Biden-Putin meeting? This was the first.

The second is the European security issue. It was quickly forgotten, the US had given a letter about the security guarantees that Russia wanted. We were waiting for his answer from Putin. Yes, Biden-Putin talked about it. Aren’t we curious?

It is not clear what kind of a campaign is being run in the media. Everyone is sitting as if watching a tennis match, watching the game.

Let me make the point then:

Biden and Putin talked. They agreed on the January 26, 2022 security guarantees letter sent by the USA to Russia. Some of the articles, if not the entire text, were deemed acceptable and the discussion will continue. Following this phone call, the delegations of the parties will concretize the details on this framework and the USA and Russia will sign an agreement in this direction in the coming period.

During the meeting, Putin frankly and clearly explained to Biden all the steps that Russia will take in line with its security architecture at this stage. “We were enemies in the Cold War, then we became friends, we need to develop that friendship,” Putin’s Russia tells Biden’s America. The cards are open by Putin: “The enlargement of NATO, seen within the framework of the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture since 2000, is a security threat for Russia. If we do not come to an agreement in this direction and do not put a stop to this insidious expansion, we will take all kinds of military steps that will lead to a nuclear disaster.”

What is involved in Putin’s campaign against the Transatlantic? Russia says:

  • Crimea is Russian territory, you will accept that.
  • The Ukraine crisis will be discussed unhindered from now on, in accordance with the Minsk Agreement, which has been delayed for eight years.
  • You have fueled hysteria about the invasion of Ukraine, you will abandon this method. We will not invade Ukraine, we have placed troops on the border so that NATO does not invade Ukraine. There will be such applications not only in Ukraine, but also from Belarus to the Georgian border. If you continue to intervene in these countries, including Ukraine, we will intervene in our own way.
  • If we agree on these issues like this, our cooperation as the USA and Russia will continue. On the contrary, be prepared for all kinds of disaster scenarios. It is only a matter of time before we return to the Cold War era.
  • The United States will not deploy offensive weapons in Ukraine. Zelensky will allow Russian experts to monitor this, if necessary.
  • NATO and Russia will begin bilateral talks in Europe that will prevent further military escalation, including on nuclear weapons issues. Studies on this subject will be reviewed within the framework of the issues determined during the signing of the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Law.
  • Joint measures will be taken against provocations.
  • Without progress on all these issues, Ukraine’s desire to join NATO will be curbed. In fact, if Ukraine is included in NATO, Crimea is accepted as NATO territory, and if NATO implements Article 5 in this context, Russia will fight. This is the reason why there is a Russian military presence in this region.

Let’s take into account the ground of this agreement that I have stated with the perspective of Russia. That at least explains to us what’s going on. In addition, these issues give an idea about what is being talked about by the leaders. This information is a guide for those who want to look at the subject without distracting.

This is the Biden-Putin meeting. It has been positive. Biden described to Zelensky what he should do. European leaders will also continue to meet with Putin. Diplomacy continues. There may be provocateurs and naïve people who are waiting for conflict by sharing videos of the movements of the soldiers and the exercises carried out on the borders.

As can be seen, no one but the Political Center explained and discussed the crisis, which is one of the most critical issues of our time and which is shown as open to a global conflict, and the ongoing negotiations. While everyone continues to act like a tool of provocation, let’s not forget that we are at a point where diplomacy continues. Despite those who gain benefits by fueling the war, it is necessary to continue to act with the awareness of making a moderate policy with an effort for peace and stability.

Let me make my assessment as a veteran: After these conditions, won’t there be a war? Two possibilities still remain. The first is the extreme reaction of the local people in the hot region and the situation that a conflict that may arise due to this evolves into a growth direction. The second is that, with a perspective on Biden and Putin levels, the current crisis suddenly enters a growth phase, even if the diplomacy situation continues. In both these cases, there is a hypothetical approach. I can generalize as follows; wars happen despite all efforts! But it takes a lot of effort to avoid war.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

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