Global Inflation and Geopolitical Situation

18 Nisan 2022

Today we focused on the Ukraine issue. On the other hand, we have a big global problem, related to the economy. We do not talk about the relevance of these negative economic developments to the sanctions imposed on Russia, because the world wants this war to end. So who is making sacrifices or will make more, how will the atmosphere of Post-Ukraine develop?

The 2008 Global Economic Crisis, the Covid-19 Pandemic, and then the Ukraine-Russia War… During these processes, the global financial crisis, disruption of supply chains, fluctuations in energy prices and finally global-inflationary economic conditions emerged. There are also those who say that there will be stagflation from here.

While the “new-normalization” conditions after Covid-19 (Post-Corona) came to the agenda, the “new-normalization” conditions after the Ukraine-Russia War (Post-Ukraine) were added.

There was an expectation that the workforce would revive, the markets would recover, and the economic growth figures would return to their normal course. I argued that with the effect of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, all we know is changing, and accordingly, socio-economic, socio-political, global economic and technological conditions create their own ecosystem.

After all that has happened, today’s persistent supply disruptions and financial market volatility do not seem abnormal to me. It takes a possible effort to try to understand this and to question the reasons for the results that have taken place. However, I want to see the cost and the change it will bring about the total burden of inflation in inclusive economies such as the G7, OECD, EU, whose GDP is driving the global economy. Of course, I would be grateful if there is an opinion that will support me in this matter.

While the inflation rate (around 5 percent) was acceptable when Biden-Putin was at its peak in Covid-19 conditions, the global inflation environment increased (close to 10 percent) due to the sanctions decisions taken against Russia due to the Ukraine War and the negative political atmosphere conditions. In my opinion, if global inflation of 10 percent or more becomes chronic, and other economic recession conditions are added to this, it will mean a significant global crisis, and its price will be very heavy. The conditions of 2013 are developing towards this, and already global investors in the USA have started to calculate their steps accordingly.

In the days when Covid-19 started to spread, we discussed the reasons for this. A lot can be said about the Ukraine-Russia War today. For example, let me draw attention to an important point that was among the factors of this war: Both the USA and Russia were eager (to an extent that could be called excessive) for the realization of this war.

The obvious signals of the war are that, right after Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 and the US Presidential elections in 2016, it dares to intervene in the system of a global power by using post-truth methods.

These two challenges mean that Russia moves geopolitical stones. This is the beginning and cause of the last negative process. Due to this negative development, both leaders, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, held talks for more than four hours in Geneva in March 2020. There were even experts who thought that this summit would create a positive atmosphere. However, this Geneva summit was a historical proof that the two dominant powers, the USA and Russia, could not agree on the two concrete issues in the global power race and these two concrete issues of 2014 and 2016.

At the same time, the ground of disagreement of this summit, which was held under the conditions of Covid-19 in 2020, made it clear that Russia’s total attack on Ukraine with 100,000 soldiers in February 2022. The main front of the war stretched from the Atlantic (Baltic) to Eurasia (Black Sea), its sphere of influence was global and especially the Pacific and Arctic Seas were within it. The front of the operation was only the territory of Ukraine.

Well, can the willingness of the USA and Russia, which has revived this geopolitical tension or fault line so much, can only be explained by the “neo-Nazi” discourse and the “enlargement of NATO” aspects? If Putin and Biden wanted to, they could agree on what kind of status quo they could bring to Ukraine. But they did not agree! Here is the point on which they disagree, which creates today’s conditions.

The global economic balances, which could not be put on track since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, fueled the creation of a new atmosphere with the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Russia thought that; now the era of the USA was coming to an end, China was on the rise and the union of Russia and China could bring the end of the USA and the Atlantic as a strong bloc in Eurasia… There were those who believed in this idea. In fact, some of the signs did not require this situation.

However, the main point to be taken seriously was this: that a great movement such as the global settlement of the requirements and construction of the Fourth Industrial Revolution could be planned based on the “Anglosphere”, that the capacity to do this already exists, that the socio-economic and socio-political conditions in time they did not take seriously that it could be developed without hesitation by the center.

Economists can find connections within their disciplines through cause-effect relationships. Prices increased in the economy, resulting in inflationary pressure, and a global uncertainty emerged. In Covid-19, there was a fight with the vaccine. However, what kind of vaccine should be developed for this inflation (or possible stagflation)? I suspect that there is an economist circle who agrees on what kind of conditions fueled inflation. The circles that are considered important are displaying a very callous attitude; It’s as if there is a predicted target and they are following the passage of time and the settling of conditions.

Could there be those who do not care about the state of today’s consumers, job security, the level of investments and do not care much about the exponentially developing negativity in energy? It may or may not actually happen, but it seems suspicious. Governments and Central Banks of major economies such as the United States (dollar), China (renminbi), European Union (euro), Japan (yen), United Kingdom (pound) are watching the developments as if everything is normal, is it because of the intoxication of the Covid-19 process, in critical situations they are content to give very little steering.

Moreover, the United States and its Partners (including the G7 countries, four currencies; dollar, pound, yen and euro), which are blocking against Russia, are putting an advanced sanctions package into effect every day without hesitation. They use the conditions of today’s Ukraine War as if to develop the economic conditions they aim for the future, and they seem to be digesting new-normalization with every step; In the description of the economic situation, they look at it as a “geopolitical situation” and pass it off!

Of course, the war must end without delay and whatever is necessary must be done in this regard. But I’m worried: Did Biden and Putin only talk about neo-Nazis and NATO in Geneva in 2020? Did they act without knowing the economic conditions of 2022? What sacrifices did they make to prevent war? Especially if Biden didn’t sacrifice enough and this made the war to start, but today he wants to reach another goal by spreading the cost to the world economy, with the sanctions (which are shown as the sacrifice of the USA and its partners to a sufficient extent at every stage) as if it were an injection vaccine today? Which economist can describe this situation to me? Moreover, when a global Information War uses every front so much…

We evaluate with our current information, global inflation is increasing, the dollar is rising and financial conditions are developing in a negative direction. But what will “values” be in the world between 2035-2050? What should be in our vision?

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

Ekonomi 'ın son yazıları


Küresel Kapitalizmin Vizyonu İçinde

Keşifler, sanayi devrimleri, Aydınlanma, Rönesans ve Reform Hareketleri, Fransız İhtilali, ulus devletler ve derken hızla bugünlere gelen insanın serüvenine çok farklı yaklaşımlarda bulunanlar var. Bugünden Sömürgeciliği, Emperyalizmi ve Orta Çağı yeniden hatırlatan yazarlar var. Her şey bir yana, her yaşanan gün, hatta saniye, 8 milyarlık dünya için çok değerli!

Kapitalizmin Kritiği

Güncel konulara ve kavramlara bakarak, kapitalizm gerçeğini, yaşananları, ülkelerin, politikacıların ve entelektüelin durumunu irdeleyelim. Gerçekleri, yanılmaları ve kritikleri gözden geçirelim.

BRICS Hakkında

Güney Afrika'da 22-24 Ağustos tarihlerinde BRICS (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Çin ve Güney Afrika) liderler zirvesi 15nci toplantısı gerçekleşiyor. Şimdi önemli soru ortak para birimi olacak mı? Bunu göreceğiz. Ancak böyle bir karar olsa nasıl mümkün olabilir, tarifini yapalım.

ABD’nin Jeo-politikası ve Küresel Ekonomideki Baskısı

Küresel ekonomik şartların aşırı derecede değişiklik göstermesinin mantıklı bir açıklaması olmalıdır. Rastgele gelişmelerin yaşanması şeklinde açıklamalar ve büyük ekonomilerin bunun üzerine politika üretmeleri pek kabul edilebilir değildir. 2008’de başlayan olumsuz dalga Covid-19'dan sonra, bugün Ukrayna’daki savaşın getirdiği olumsuz ekonomik şartları da geçti, gelişmeler salt politika deyip bakılamaz noktada, bugün Ukrayna'da bir savaş oluyorken, Hint-Pasifik’te hemen her an bir provokasyon ile şartlar gerginleştirilmektedir. Normal ekonomi yaklaşımlarıyla "normal, birbirini tetikliyor," şeklinde açıklanabilecek olumsuz ekonomik gelişmelerle, özellikle ABD kaynaklı jeopolitik ve jeostratejik girişimlerle, daha da derin sorunlar olmaya dönüştürülmektedir.

Hiper Küreselleşmenin Etkileri

Biz ekonomiyi biliyoruz! Kapitalist misiniz, değil misiniz? Liberal misiniz, eşgüdümcü mü? Küreselci misiniz, ulusalcı mı? Kimlik siyasetini mi önemsiyorsunuz, finans politikalarını mı? Kural-egemenlikten yana mısınız, neo-liberalci mi? Kaçıncı Sanayi Devrimi gereği konuları tamamladınız? Bu içinde bulunulan devrimin şartlarına hazır mısınız? Sorular çoğaltılabilir. Ben işin bu netlikle ve bilinçlilikle olan kısmındayım.

Okumadan Geçme