The Main Rivalry 

23 Şubat 2022

We were aware from the beginning that this issue was not a Ukraine Crisis. This is the biggest issue after the Second World War. The main rivalry is between the USA and Russia. Now I’m going to explain to you in a very short run, by just covering the headlines, what this high risk can mean. There is a risk here, and it’s called the New Cold War. This article is at least a guide for you to follow the next developments easily, you will be able to develop your own thoughts by placing the stones in the right places.

Let’s look at the Putin doctrine first. From a diplomatic point of view, Putin considers the security and interests of the country out of discussion. By manipulating the interests and perspectives of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), Putin sought a way and method to create a difference between them. He visited Beijing and held talks to establish a partnership with China and to obtain a guarantee from its east. He followed the Hybrid Warfare method. This includes (as per the Gerasimov Doctrine) Irregular or Non-Linear Warfare and Cyber ​​Warfare. Cyber ​​Warfare includes Information Warfare and Cyber ​​Operations. As in many examples in history, Russia basically prefers the method of gaining by Hard Power. It provides deterrence by using its armed forces and new weapon systems, and uses it without hesitation if necessary. Russia used the Minsk Agreement as a method of diplomacy and deception in this Ukraine crisis.

Joe Biden started to express himself during the election process and took concrete steps after he entered the White House. Doctrine documents are fixed. What is included in the Biden doctrine? Biden immediately bent over partnerships and alliance recovery. The G7 held refresher talks with NATO and the EU. He stated that he would apply the Smart Power (Soft and Hard Power) method. The USA (as per military instruction JP 3.0) applies the Full Spectrum Warfare method. What was said above for Hybrid Warfare applies to this as well. The United States embarked on an intense Information War.

The United Kingdom (UK), which chose the path to leave the EU with Brexit, acted together with the USA. He returned to global politics with Anglospere countries. Methods similar to the Biden doctrine were also valid for the UK.

NATO has announced its 2030 vision. NATO was militarily ready. He had just accepted the Baltic plan. The deterrent was NATO. He was in favor of maintaining the Open Door Policy. This point is critical, especially in a war in Europe, if Germany and France do not want war, NATO cannot advance any further!

The dominant powers of the European Union, France and Germany, which will have elections in France, and Germany came out of the new elections, had the understanding of not risking themselves any longer on the road to a global war with the Ukraine crisis. Although Macron and Scholz approached Biden positively in terms of alliance partnership, they could not risk war at this time. Moreover, they thought that they could solve the Ukraine crisis through diplomacy. Minsk and Normandy processes could be operated.

Russia carried out a diplomacy that would go forward with the Minsk process, addressing this different point of view of Germany and France. But the results showed that it was a method of deception. Within the Western bloc in the perspective of the Ukraine crisis; The USA and UK were on one side, Germany and France on the other. It was a separation that would change everything. This disintegration kept NATO out, and from now on, we have to say that Russia gained the upper hand. He could now make his moves in order.

Russia’s main goal was to prevent NATO from being a border neighbor and to legitimize autonomy by pointing to the request from Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine. Judging by the results, Russia achieved both targets, but the crisis is not over. In addition, Vladimir Putin made a long speech while announcing his decision. This speech was interesting and included the following titles: There was a nuclear emphasis, he used expressions as if he chose Tsarist Russia or a return to the Imperial period with historical reminders, and presented global developments as if they were threatening.

With these perspectives, Putin first pointed out that he recognized the separatist region, then the procedures were started, moreover, he again brought his troops into the region with deceptive methods. By making an actual move, he created a situation that triggers every development.

At this stage, let’s look briefly at Ukraine and President Zelensky. Zelensky approached this decision taken by Russia with restraint. But before coming here, he asked important questions such as why he was not included in NATO in Munich and if Russia will not be intervened today, when will it be? Among the decisions taken by Zelensky from the point of view of the policy of restraint were as follows: Reserve soldiers were summoned, he called for peace to Russia and related institutions, and demanded a summit. As a final decision, civilians were allowed to carry weapons and a state of emergency was declared in the country.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov pointed out without delay that Zelensky did not represent the whole of Ukraine. The moves of instability continued.

The United Nations (UN) Security Council convened. Condemnations came from certain countries.

Announcing that it supported Russia at the opening of the Olympics, China stated that it was wrong to recognize this autonomy and take military steps. This was a statement showing China’s classic policy of neutrality.

After Putin’s decision, we saw that the Western bloc basically took the initiative in two points. First, economic sanctions were introduced. In this context, there are reactions from the USA, EU, UK and Germany, and these are a very important topic that has just been discussed. The second is Biden’s reconsolidation effort. Biden says that he was justified in the separation of Germany and France in this process. It will be remembered that in the past weeks, Biden and Blinken had scolded Germany and France, saying that if the right steps are not taken, you will pay a big price. These clear caveats have now led us to define a cost. Because despite the Western bloc, Putin was able to take a de facto step. Scholz and Macron saw themselves being deceived by Putin, and it wasn’t good for them. Let’s not forget Sun Tzu, wars are won or lost by deception.

What are the payment issues? Once a piece of land from Ukraine was blatantly taken away by Russia, now it will take more effort to take a step back. Second, although NATO’s open-door policy continues, it has rendered its deterrence useless for the time being. Against Russia’s step in Europe, NATO remained on the sidelines despite its great capacity. Another issue is related to the economic sanctions taken. While the global balances in the economy have deteriorated during the coronavirus process, now with these economic sanctions decisions, many new global problems, from energy to food and trade, will be affected by the potential to grow from snowball to avalanche. This is a loss and is a matter of cost.

No one can deceive and fool us, Biden said in a statement. I understand this statement as being made against Russia on the one hand and against Europe on the other. With Biden’s new consolidation effort, we started to see some steps being taken. These are: The USA made military deployments again in its troops in Europe; He deployed troops and aircraft to the Baltic and Polish regions, which he brought from further south.

The claim of the USA and UK, which has been going on since the beginning, has been discussed; The claim that Russia will invade all of Ukraine is still on the agenda. Finally, today Russian forces are on Ukrainian soil. Whether the next Russian step will come is an important question. What will the Western partnership, which cannot prevent this step, do if other steps are taken by Russia from now on?

It is within this framework that while the discussions continue, Biden wants to be organized, at least in terms of deterrence, as if pointing to a process we can call NATO again. A NATO leaders’ summit will be held today. What decisions will be made?

We will continue to ask important global questions such as will China remain neutral or how effective is the UN? It is known that the main target area for the USA and UK is the Pacific, and issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea stand before us with certain temperatures. The main area of ​​global competition is an issue that can be determined with the USA and China. Let’s talk about this important issue with these words and leave it.

Let’s come to determine the risk areas that are getting stronger as an extension of these developments. At the heart of the matter, a risk of provocation and conflict remains in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Adding Russia’s further step forward in Ukraine, that would mean a global security risk that could grow at some point.

Foreign Ministers Blinken and Lavrov were to meet in Geneva on February 24. Subsequently, a meeting between President Biden and President Putin was also planned. Considering the actual situation created by this Putin, the USA broke off diplomatic relations. This political and diplomatic restraint has the value to produce global impact.

When all these risks are combined, we are talking about a New Cold War risk. If we recall, there is an imbalance in nuclear weapons, conventional armament will be given more importance, the discussion of spheres of influence will be more prominent, more conflicts will be seen in gray areas, intelligence wars will continue to increase, cyber-space competition is already an important issue, but the most obvious point. The Economic War will be fully effective. Looks like China is still out. But we know that as of 2027, China will have achieved its military and weapons of mass destruction capacity targets. We’ll see if it goes down the field after this point.

From now on, we will continue to evaluate this trend within a growing risk picture starting from the Ukraine crisis.

NOTE: Due to intellectual property rights, you can use this information by reference.

Gursel Tokmakoglu

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